Let’s head to the best prediction markets to dive into this matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) and Atlanta Falcons.
The Bengals are coming off a comeback victory over the Titans, while the Falcons just got blown out by the Buccaneers. Bengals’ quarterback Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP level, while Atlanta’s offense has hit a bit of a wall lately.
With Cincinnati looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders, they have the edge over the Falcons in this Week 9 matchup in Madrid.
The Bengals are priced at 62 cents to win this game. Cincinnati is favored by 3.5 points on the spread, priced at 47 cents. This makes sense because the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Falcons are pretty underwhelming overall.
The total is listed at 52.5 points, with the Under favored at 51 cents. It’s a projected shootout with an elite Bengals’ passing game. Joe Burrow loves to air it out. He’s been finding Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins early and often this year.
When looking at NFL prediction markets, I see the best value on Over 52.5 points at 50 cents.
Yes, Michael Penix Jr. was abysmal in rainy weather vs the Bucs, completing only 8-of-24 passes for 125 yards, along with four interceptions. However, in two games before that, he threw six touchdowns with zero picks.
We just saw the Bengals give up 304 yards and two touchdowns to Cam Ward. Allowing 36 points against an underwhelming Titans offense shows how this Bengals defense is struggling right now.
While Joe Burrow was turnover-prone against the Titans as well, this offense is firing on all cylinders, scoring 30+ points in three straight games.
In a favorable game environment in a stadium with a retractable roof where weather won’t be an issue, there’s a good chance that we’ll see a shootout in this one.
The Bengals are pass-heavy on offense, while the Falcons have played in several high-scoring affairs this year. In fact, Atlanta games have combined for 49, 54, 53, 69, and 49 points in their last five.
With that in mind, I’ll buy into Over 52.5 in this one.
Back on Nov. 1, the Bengals were as high as 66% favorites in this game, but they’ve fallen to 61%. This isn’t surprising because we’ve seen the Falcons keep it close in several games. We can view last week as a write-off for them due to rainy weather. Now facing a Bengals defense that struggled vs. Cam Ward, we could see this one stay competitive.
While 52.5 is a big number for the total, we’ve seen each of these teams play in high-scoring games on several occasions this year. In an indoor game environment that is favorable for offenses, this one can turn into an absolute shootout.
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