Week 9 of the 2026 NFL regular season concludes tonight in Minneapolis as the Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football. Trading activity on the Kalshi prediction market app is already buzzing, with more than $5 million in volume as of early Monday morning.
Both teams enter this evening’s game with a 6-1 record, but the Bills clearly have more momentum due to their three-game winning streak. The Vikings will be looking to rebound after a disappointing loss last week at the hands of the Detroit Lions. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. Eastern Time on ABC, with live streaming options available for ESPN+ subscribers.
The Buffalo Bills and quarterback Josh Allen have scored more points per game (33.3) than any other team in the league, by far. In order to have a chance tonight, the Minnesota offense will need to put up at least that many points on the woeful Buffalo defense, something that most NFL prediction market forecasters don’t believe will happen.
Carson Wentz will take over the starting quarterback duties in Kyler Murray’s absence. If Wentz disappoints, look for the Vikings to actively pursue another offensive leader before the November 10th trade deadline expires. As far as picks go, we’re projecting a relatively easy victory for the Buffalo Bills unless Wentz can connect with Justin Jefferson for 150+ yards and a couple of touchdowns.
We like the Buffalo Bills to win tonight and cover the 3.5-point spread. Meanwhile, we think Minnesota is talented enough to put up at least 20 points on Buffalo’s dismal defense, which is giving up an average of 26 points per game. Our final score projection is 28-20 in favor of Buffalo. Traders who want to choose the Bills straight-up can buy those contracts for 62¢ each on Kalshi.
Former Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson will be honored tonight at U.S. Bank Stadium during a special halftime ceremony. Peterson’s induction into the Vikings Ring of Honor will pay tribute to his 2012 NFL MVP season in which he rushed for 2,097 yards.
Bills head coach Joe Brady has been preparing his team for the pressure defense that Minnesota brings to the field. In seven total games, the Vikings’ defense has only allowed an average of 13.3 points per game. That metric is why the “totals” market has remained below 45 points for tonight’s matchup.
Regardless of the outcome, the Bills will retain a stranglehold on the AFC East Division. However, the Vikings will fall out of first place in the NFC North division if they lose tonight. This is because Caleb Williams overcame four interceptions last night as the Bears won their fourth consecutive regular-season outing against Tampa Bay by a final score of 27-24.
The “totals” market for this game is definitely worth keeping an eye on for experienced traders. If two or more touchdowns are scored in the first quarter, the “over” market on 44.5 points will jump in price as a result. The baseline that Kalshi forecasters have set so far is driven toward an increased number of red zone stoppages.
The Bills’ point spread could also get a huge in-game remake if it appears as if Josh Allen is cutting through the Vikings’ defense and getting “chunk plays” against blitz packages. Look for the Vikings to lose their second straight game tonight after starting the season with a 6-0 record.
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