Three weeks of the 2026 NFL regular season have come and gone; 15 remain. NFL prediction markets have a lot to contemplate as teams jockey for position and increase their odds to make the postseason.
There’s a $1.7 million market on Kalshi right now that covers which NFL team will have the best regular season record once Week 18 has concluded. Unsurprisingly, three currently undefeated teams are leading the charge.
New head coach Joe Brady has his offense performing at an extremely high level. With the official opening of the new Highmark Stadium, the Bills have wowed pro football fans and jumped out to a two-game lead in the AFC East.
At 23¢ per contract, Buffalo is the highest-ranking team on Kalshi’s market for the best 2026 NFL regular season record by a meaningful margin. The price is bolstered by the Bills’ relatively weak division, their ability to avoid major injury up to this point, and a schedule that still includes six pending division matchups.
We like the Bills to win this market and find the contract price agreeable. While Buffalo’s defense may have underperformed after three weeks, the offense has more than made up for that.
Running back Christian McCaffrey is back to his All-Pro form, Brock Purdy is taking care of the ball, and the 49ers came away from Australia with a marquee victory over a tough NFC West division rival.
But the NFC West is packed with talent, including the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks plus another contest against the Rams. Furthermore, the 49ers host the Denver Broncos at Levi’s Stadium this weekend and are favored by less than three points to win.
Still, it’s hard to argue with a 3-0 record, especially when two of those wins have been within the division. Our take is that San Francisco is a solid contender for runner-up honors in Kalshi’s “best NFL regular season record” market, where traders can pick up “yes” contracts for 14¢ each.
Patrick Mahomes has had a successful return after knee surgery, scrambling out of the pocket and finding open receivers just as he did before his 2025 setback. The Chiefs are also in position to knock off another undefeated team this Sunday when they take on the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
But the remaining schedule for Kansas City is tough, with two matchups against the Denver Broncos, a trip to Lumen Field to take on the Seahawks, and back-to-back away games against the Bills and Rams. The San Francisco 49ers will also play the Chiefs at Arrowhead later in the season.
The contract price of 10¢ reflects the road ahead for Kansas City, which has seen a revival of Travis Kelce and more support in the running game via Kenneth Walker III. The NFL prides itself on “parity,” meaning that either team (or a different team) could rise or fall in the Kalshi market following Week 4 of the regular season.
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