This Sunday afternoon, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet for the 214th time in the longest NFL rivalry of all time. The last time these two teams met was in January, when the Chicago Bears pulled off a stunning comeback in the NFL Wild Card round.
NFL prediction markets have this game listed close to a toss-up. With $1 million in trading volume already achieved on this Kalshi market, the Bears have a contract price of 53¢ to win outright. With the Vikings set up to go 5-0 on the season in New Orleans, both teams need a victory to keep pace in the NFC North.
The Chicago Bears have benefited from exceptional play from their two backup quarterbacks, Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent. When Caleb Williams went down during the fourth quarter of Chicago’s loss against Minnesota in Week 2, many forecasters thought the Bears’ season was practically over.
But Chicago comes into Week 5 with a 3-1 record, while the Packers are 2-2 and in desperate need of not falling behind the Vikings by three games on their home field. Still, we think the Bears have the advantage for this Sunday’s contest, if for no other reason than the fact that they’re outscoring opponents by nearly 12 points each game.
We’re taking Chicago at 53¢ per contract and are willing to give up 1.5 points on Kalshi’s point spread market. The weather forecast in Green Bay calls for sunshine and temperatures near 80 degrees throughout the afternoon. If you haven’t yet decided where to lock in these prices, check out our guide to the best prediction market sites to see your options.
Tyson Bagent will start this Sunday against the Packers. Caleb Williams is confirmed OUT, meaning Case Keenum will be Bagent’s backup. With a win, Chicago would start the regular season with a record of 4-1, their best five-game start since 2020. The Bears’ bad-weather game against Minnesota at Soldier Field could turn out to be pivotal in the NFC North race.
The Green Bay Packers may start Pierre Strong Jr. at running back if Christopher Brooks isn’t cleared to play due to an ankle injury. A near-capacity crowd of over 80,000 fans is expected to attend the game, but the Packers lost at Lambeau Field in embarrassing fashion against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football recently.
This market could break in favor of Chicago if Christopher Brooks can’t play. At 18.25 points per game, the Packers have the worst-scoring offense in the NFC and need all the help they can get to complement MarShawn Lloyd.
The Bears travel to Atlanta next week. The Packers will host the Dallas Cowboys. US viewers who want to watch Sunday’s game can tune in to FOX starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
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