The Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) look to bounce back after getting blown out on Sunday Night Football against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7. They head to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (5-2) in a pivotal AFC West divisional showdown.
The Broncos looked a lot better on offense in a 30-16 win over the Arizona Cardinals, where quarterback Bo Nix made headlines with an impressive 62-yard touchdown run. Denver will try to build on this performance at home vs. the Chiefs.
It’s setting up to be a close game, so let’s dive into the best prediction markets to see where the best trades are for Chiefs vs. Broncos in Week 8.
The Chiefs are priced at 53 cents to win this game. The point spread is Chiefs -1.5, priced at 49 cents. It makes sense to see the Chiefs as short road favorites because the Broncos have been extremely inconsistent on offense, but Mile High is always a tough place to play.
The total comes in at 40.5 points, with the Under favored at 51 cents. This is a low number, but it reflects how the Chiefs have evolved into a run-heavy offense, while baking in some risk that the Broncos go back to struggling to score points.
I’m going with Over 40.5 at 50 cents. This feels like too low a bar, especially considering we’re getting below the key number of 41. That means that a common scoreline like 21-20 would be a win here. With the spread being only Chiefs -1.5, it’s definitely possible to see this type of finish.
When these teams met in Week 1, the Chiefs won in a 31-10 blowout. Running back Kenneth Walker rushed for 173 yards and a touchdown. Expect a much closer game this time around.
With Bo Nix having arguably his best game of the season last week, there’s a chance that he’s rediscovered his form from last year. I can envision a scenario where it’s 17-17 late in the 4th quarter, and both teams are able to knock down field goals, forcing the game to overtime.
With players like Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Bo Nix, and Jaylen Waddle on each of these teams, 40.5 feels too low, so we’ll ride with the Over.
When taking a look at NFL prediction markets, we see that there has been some movement so far. The Chiefs were as high as 55-cent favorites on Oct. 25, but they’ve moved down to 53 cents. This makes sense because the Broncos are getting back a key defender in Pat Surtain II. But even with that addition, I’m still going Over 40.5 because it’s below the key number of 41.
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