The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) are riding high off a comfortable win over the lowly Miami Dolphins. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes hasn’t shown any rust coming off a torn ACL, while prized free agent running back Kenneth Walker has been even better than advertised.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) have been one of the biggest surprises of the year. New head coach Klint Kubiak is doing a phenomenal job with the offense. But the biggest shocker is how good the defense has played so far.
This should be an interesting matchup between two AFC West rivals vying for sole possession of first place in the division as we approach the one-quarter mark of the 2026 NFL season. Let’s look into NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Chiefs are priced at 64 cents to win this game. This isn’t a surprise because the Chiefs are the better team on paper, while the Raiders were initially expected to be among the worst teams in the NFL coming into the year. But in a road game with the Raiders riding high, this feels a bit too expensive.
The same goes for the point spread, where the Chiefs are currently favored by 4.5. This gets us above key numbers of 3 and 4. We can win with a loss by three or four points, which are common score lines. The total is at 47.5, which feels right given the indoor game environment and how the Chiefs offense has performed so far.
I don’t have a good read on the side for this game. I can see the Chiefs winning by 3-6 points, but I also can’t rule out a Raiders upset. To that end, rather than choosing a winner or targeting the point spread, I’m going with the total.
I’ll take Chiefs/Raiders Under 47.5. We get above the key number of 47 here. That means that a common scoreline like 27-20 would still result in a win.
Both of these defenses have been excellent so far. The Chiefs rank 6th in EPA per play allowed, while the Raiders are 2nd. While they’ve each been able to light up the scoreboard, I expect a lower-scoring game in a pivotal divisional matchup.
The Chiefs were 69.5% favorites back on September 27th, but it’s now moved to 65%. This is because the Raiders continue to show that they’re much better than expected. Head coach Klint Kubiak is establishing himself as one of the best in the NFL, while the defense is smashing expectations. Don’t be surprised if this game is close, perhaps even an upset for the Raiders.
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