The NFL jumps across the pond on Sunday, with the Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders heading to the UK to play their Week 4 matchup in London at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Both the Colts and Commanders avoided a dreaded 0-3 start in Week 3. Indianapolis earned its first win of the campaign with a last-minute field goal against division rival Houston Texans, snapping a seven-game losing streak dating back to last season.
But Washington were the big story of Week 3, stunning the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks 33-31, despite Marcus Mariota playing for the injured Jayden Daniels. Mariota threw for three touchdowns, and the Commanders’ defense stepped up with three forced turnovers, including a game-winning pick-6 with just under four minutes to play.
Daniels, who suffered a dislocated elbow in Week 2, isn’t ready to return against the Colts, so Mariota will once again be under center for Washington.
With both teams looking to get back to .500, which one will jumpstart a playoff push on the international stage? Let’s check out the latest NFL prediction markets and make our call for the winner.
Despite the Commanders’ huge upset victory last week, the Colts are the heavy favorites, priced at 65¢ to win. But that feels too rich for a team that’s still without its biggest weapon in the passing game, Alec Pierce, due to a heel injury.
Now, the Commanders’ defense is still very vulnerable. Washington has given up the second-most passing yards per game (280.3) and second-most points per game (30.7) through three weeks. The unit might’ve come up clutch against Seattle, but Sam Darnold nearly had 400 yards and four touchdowns. Pierce is Indianapolis’ primary deep threat, but Josh Downs and Tyler Warren should still cause Washington major headaches.
This game actually has all the hallmarks of a shootout, which is good news for UK fans, who’re too often treated to low-scoring games. The Colts’ defense, fresh off an offseason overhaul, has yet to gel. They’re only marginally better than Washington, ranking 30th in points allowed (30.3). In fairness, they have faced Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, but the poor linebacker and edge-rusher play is still worrying.
My X-factor for this game will be how well the Commanders can contain star running back Jonathan Taylor. While Washington is poor in pass defense, they rank third against the run, allowing just 82 yards per game. Taylor has looked his usual explosive self this season, and without Pierce, the Colts need him to create big plays.
While Daniels not returning is a blow, Mariota is one of the more capable backup quarterbacks in the league and knows how to take advantage of some of Indy’s holes on defense, especially the middle of the field. I like taking the chance on the Commanders at 36¢ here.
The Colts have consistently been the big favorites ever since the game market opened at Kalshi, though they’ve dipped slightly from around 67¢ to 65¢. As of Friday morning, the trading volume for the international matchup had nearly reached $2 million.
The over/under market, which sits at 48.5 points, has seen significant change, though, with the over jumping from 37¢ to 49¢. As I said, no one should have much faith in either defense, so it’s not surprising to see prediction market players picking the over, despite a London game not seeing both teams score 20+ points since 2023.
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