The Washington Commanders (2-5-1) are in a must-win situation as they head to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (5-2-1). Washington’s only hope for the postseason is to win the NFC East, so they can’t afford falling further behind the Giants with a loss on Week 10 Thursday Night Football.
When these teams last met in Week 5, we saw some egregious mistakes, where Cam Skattebo fumbled in overtime and Jayden Daniels failed to get a play off in time for a potential game-winning field goal. The Commanders will look to remove that error from their memories with a road win here.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best prediction markets apps to find value in this pivotal Week 10 matchup.
The Giants are favored at 57 cents for this game, which makes sense because they have the better record along with home-field advantage. The point spread if Giants -2.5, priced at 51 cents. The total comes in at 41.5 points, with the Under favored at 49 cents.
It’s worth noting that the Commanders had a 27-13 lead in the fourth quarter in the last matchup between these two teams, before squandering that lead and ultimately tying in overtime. With that in mind, there’s some value on the underdog here.
When looking at NFL prediction markets, I see the best value on taking the Commanders at +2.5. This gives us protection in case they lose by one or two on a last minute field goal. It’s a game where points could be hard to come by, so that outcome is definitely within range.
The reason why I like the Commanders here is that they’re in a must-win situation. If they lose this game, they can pretty much kiss their slim postseason chances goodbye. Given that they controlled the last matchup against the Giants, I think they have a legit chance at getting this done.
It’s also worth noting that since Jayden Daniels returned, the Commanders have been pretty competitive. They tied against the Giants, lost by six against a Super Bowl contender in the 49ers, beat the Eagles by 17, and only lost by seven against a potential playoff team in the Rams. They’re not as bad as their 2-5-1 record.
To that end, we’ll take Commanders +2.5 in this must-win spot.
The Commanders were actually at 50% on Nov. 8 at 3 p.m., but the market has moved towards the Giants, as they’re now at 57 cents. This isn’t surprising due to their better record and home-field advantage. But with the Commanders in a must-win spot, there’s value in taking them here.
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