The Washington Commanders are coming off a 17-13 loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 2 of the 2026 NFL Preseason. Backups Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis handled the bulk of the reps at quarterback in that game.
The Baltimore Ravens beat the Minnesota Vikings 13-3 in their last game. Like the Commanders, backup quarterbacks led the way, with Joe Fagnano and Tyler Huntley seeing most of the work under center.
It will be interesting to see what the Commanders and Ravens decide to do with the playing time of notable players in this final preseason game. Let’s take a look at NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Ravens are priced at 60 cents to win this game. This makes sense because Commanders’ backups have struggled throughout preseason, resulting in an 0-2 start. Jayden Daniels and other starters aren’t likely to be suiting up for this one.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have won by double digits in each of their preseason games. Joe Fagnano has completed 37-of-48 passes, showing rock-solid efficiency. With new head coach Jesse Minter heading into his NFL debut season, he’s continuing to try to build a winning culture here, starting with preseason.
In a battle of backups, I’m going to avoid choosing a side in this game. While I think the Ravens have a better chance of winning, I don’t want to lay 2.5 points or pay up at 60 cents for that. Instead, we’ll look towards the Over/Under to find value.
You can get Over 34.5 points: No at 51 cents right now. With the Ravens allowing a combined 10 points in two preseason games, I’m going to ride with that trend and take them to slow down the Commanders offense here.
The number is this low for a reason: there’s not much incentive to pour on points in this low-stakes, final preseason game.
The Commanders added some offensive line depth by signing former Cardinals’ offensive tackle D.J. Humphries. This helps shore up the group that lost Laremy Tunsil for a large portion of the season due to an injury suffered in training camp.
Commanders’ running backs Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Rachaad White are a bit banged up right now, dealing with minor injuries.
Ravens’ third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano has impressed the team with his play. There’s a chance that he can make the roster, forcing the team to keep three quarterbacks.
The Commanders have combined for only 20 points in two preseason games, so facing a tough Ravens defense puts them in a difficult spot.
There hasn’t been much market movement for this game. The Ravens have fluctuated between 59-60% for this matchup. The market favors Baltimore because they have been much better than the Commanders in preseason so far. My preferred approach is to buy into a low-scoring game with not much on the line in this matchup.
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