The Dallas Cowboys kick off the 2026 NFL season with an NFC East divisional matchup against the rival New York Giants.
Dallas projects to be significantly improved on defense. They’re getting a full year out of stud defensive tackle Quinnen Williams after acquiring him at the trade deadline last year. On top of that, first-round safety Caleb Downs looks like a future All-Pro.
On the other side, the Giants are a team with a brand new coaching staff led by John Harbaugh. It may take time for them to adapt to the new scheme, with Matt Nagy calling plays. To that end, the Cowboys have the slight edge in this game, but let’s take a look at NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Cowboys are priced at 61 cents to win this game. This is despite playing on the road, which is notable. Dallas is favored away from home because they already had an elite offense with Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Javonte Williams. Now with an improved defense, this has the look of a scary team.
The Giants have talent across their roster, but they’re still a rebuilding team in the first game with Harbaugh as coach. While elite wideout Malik Nabers looks ready to return from a torn ACL, it’s unlikely that he’ll be at peak form in his first game off a significant knee injury.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see the Cowboys favored here, as they clearly have the edge.
I’m not going to pay up on the Cowboys at 61 cents. Instead, I’ll lay the points, taking them to win by over 2.5 points at 55 cents. We’re getting below the key number of three for this one, so it’s worth a look.
We’ve already discussed the Cowboys defense. Now we have to mention their offense, which figures to be one of the highest-scoring in the NFL. It’s going to be tough for the G-Men to slow down Dak and company.
New York drafted Arvell Reese, but traded Dexter Lawrence, so their defense is still a question mark. Given these circumstances, let’s take the Cowboys -2.5 here.
The Cowboys have steadily moved up in price to win this game, as the market is showing confidence in their defensive improvements. It also helps that the Giants are a team in transition, playing their first game with Harbaugh as head coach. This feels like a low-scoring game that ends in a Cowboys 24-20 win.
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