The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) are coming off a disappointing loss in Brazil against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3. The defense continues to be a major issue, showing minimal signs of improvement despite hiring a new defensive coordinator and prioritizing this group in the NFL Draft.
The Houston Texans (0-3) came into the year with Super Bowl aspirations, but after a three-game losing streak to start the season, they’re in a must-win situation at home. The good news is that they’re clearly better than their record, dealing with two close losses to the Colts and Bills so far. Those games could have easily gone in their favor.
It should be an interesting Battle of Texas between the Cowboys and Texans, so let’s take a look at NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Texans are priced at 60 cents to win this game. This makes a ton of sense because Houston is the better team on paper, playing in a more desperate situation with home-field advantage. The Texans are completely stacked on defense, so they have the pieces in place to slow down a high-powered Cowboys offense.
The point spread has moved from 2.5 to 3.5 at Kalshi, reflecting market sentiment that the Texans are in a terrific spot here. The total is at 48.5 because of an indoor game environment with a high-scoring Cowboys defense, but I’m going to stick with a side for my trade in this one.
Rather than paying up at 60 cents for the Texans to win this game, I’m going with them to win by over 3.5 points, which you can get at 46 cents. It’s a must-win game for Houston. Expect head coach DeMeco Ryans to have the team ready to take care of business here.
Remember, the Texans are no strangers to slow starts to the season. Last year, they started the year 0-3 as well. They ended up going 12-2 the rest of the way, securing a spot in the playoffs. I can easily see something similar happening this season.
Two other key notable angles are in play here. For one, the Cowboys are coming off a game in Brazil, so travel could be a factor in this one. More importantly, the Texans are getting back their top wideout Nico Collins, who missed the last two games. Without Collins, the Texans struggle to move the ball because they have limited wide receiver depth.
Expect the Texans to put forth their best game of the season en route to a win here.
The Texans were 55% favorites back on September 28th, but the market has moved in their direction, as they’re currently priced at 58%. That makes a lot of sense because within that timeframe, we got news that Nico Collins is set to return for them. Collins completes their offense, as he’s the focal point of the passing game. His ability to win downfield will open up rushing lanes for the running game as well.
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