The opening week of the 2026 NFL regular season has not disappointed. Sunday’s slate of 13 games proved to be a boon to NFL prediction markets, with trading volume that has been nothing short of mind-blowing compared to just one year ago.
Tonight, Week 1 culminates in a Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs on ABC. The Broncos, led by head coach Sean Payton, are looking to sustain their magic from 2025. Meanwhile, the Chiefs aim to improve upon their 2025 results with a return to postseason glory.
The three standalone Week 1 NFL games we’ve seen so far have attracted approximately $100 million in trading volume each. There’s something about having a time slot that is not occupied by another game: it lets sports forecasters focus on a single game and more actively participate in live markets.
There’s already $5 million in trades riding on the Broncos at Chiefs MNF outcome. Early this morning, the Chiefs are still favored on Kalshi. Their contracts to win can be purchased at 56¢. Broncos fans who believe Denver is the “true” favorite tonight can take advantage of 45¢ contract prices.
Predicting which team will win comes down to whether one believes Patrick Mahomes will be able to lead his team to a dominant season that reverses course from last year’s woes, or whether Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos are truly a championship-caliber team that has officially arrived.
We’re going with the Chiefs at Arrowhead, but look for this game to be close. We wouldn’t be surprised if there are plenty of lead changes throughout tonight’s game.
Just when we thought that taking the “under” might be a sharp play, Sunday’s games proved just how prolific NFL offenses can be. Of the 13 games that were played yesterday, more than half of them achieved the “over” for total points scored. Chicago vs. Carolina ended 59-37 in the highest-scoring contest of the week so far.
While we don’t expect tonight’s Broncos at Chiefs game to exceed 86 total points, we do anticipate that scoring will occur on a regular basis due to both offenses’ aggressive approach on the field. The Chiefs are out to prove that 2025 was just a “fluke” and that Patrick Mahomes along with 14-year pro Travis Kelce still has what it takes to make a Super Bowl run.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, now in his third season, seems more comfortable with head coach Sean Payton’s play calling. Denver’s acquisition of former Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle will provide an enhanced deep threat combined with Courtland Sutton.
We’re guessing that the total points market will move up just a tad before tonight’s kickoff. Other than that, the “winner” outcome market will likely stay as is, with Kansas City holding a slight pregame edge due to the home-field advantage it will enjoy.
Sports fans who want to watch tonight’s AFC West Division showdown can catch all the action on ABC. DirecTV subscribers will likewise be able to watch the game, which is expected to attract a capacity, sell-out crowd at GEHA Field.
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