The Atlanta Falcons (0-2) are looking to get back on track after getting blown out by the Carolina Panthers in Week 2. The good news for the Falcons is that starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is ready to return from injury. Backup Cooper Rush was abysmal in his absence.
They’ll go up against the Green Bay Packers (1-1), who are coming off an overtime win against the New York Jets. Teams playing in overtime and then in a short week on Thursday Night Football are in a tough spot. We saw that with the Detroit Lions against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.
With the Packers dealing with a myriad of injuries on the offensive line, coupled with the fact that the Falcons could look much improved on offense with their quarterback returning, this game may be closer than expected. With that in mind, let’s take a look at NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Packers are priced at 71 cents to win this game. This makes sense because they have home-field advantage, plus the Falcons have looked like the worst team in the NFL for the first two weeks of the season.
But it’s important to note that a lot of those struggles had to do with Cooper Rush at quarterback. With Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup, this could look like a totally different Falcons team. The offense will be a lot more functional, putting the defense in better spots than they were in for the last two weeks.
I’m not going to pay up on the Packers at 71 cents. But I’m also not going to take the Falcons to win this one outright at 30 cents. Instead, I’ll take the points, going with the Falcons +5.5. You can trade on this outcome by selecting Packers to win by over 5.5 points: No. It’s currently priced at 50 cents.
With the Packers dealing with a short week and an injury-plagued offensive line, this has the look of a much closer game than expected. I can see this game coming down to a last-second field goal to decide the outcome.
The Packers were once favored by as many as seven points in this game, but they’ve moved down to 5.5. The market is clearly adjusting to their offensive line injuries and the fact that it’s a short week for them. This is a tough spot for Green Bay, which is why I’m riding with the Falcons here.
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