The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) got a much-needed win in Week 3, blowing out the Green Bay Packers 35-14 on Thursday Night Football. In Michael Penix Jr.’s return to the lineup, the offense was much more effective. The young quarterback was able to pepper top wideout Drake London with targets.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints (1-2) had a tough loss against the Las Vegas Raiders, where they blew a second-half lead. The Saints will be playing this game without top running back Travis Etienne, but at least quarterback Tyler Shough has made significant strides so far.
This should be an interesting matchup between two NFC South rivals looking to keep pace with the Carolina Panthers for the division lead. Let’s look into NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Saints are priced at 54 cents to win this game, which makes sense because New Orleans is at home and has the better quarterback in Tyler Shough over Michael Penix Jr. However, with how Atlanta looked in Green Bay, coupled with the fact that they’re on extended rest coming off Thursday Night Football, this game truly can go either way.
The point spread is low at 1.5, so there’s no point taking that. If you’re looking at a side, just take a team to win outright, since the spread doesn’t really change much. But with how close these teams are in this spot, I’m targeting the total instead.
I’m going with Over 47.5 at 51 cents in this game. This is 48.5 in other spots, so we’re getting good value at prediction markets. It’s an indoor game that sets up to be a high-scoring affair, especially when you consider how Saints games have gone so far.
Through three weeks, two of New Orleans’ games have combined for 60+ points. There’s a chance that this could happen once again, especially when you consider how comfortable Penix looked in Kevin Stefanski’s offense in the second half of their win over Green Bay.
All we need is a 28-21 or 27-21 type of scoreline to win this trade, so we’ll take a shot. The Saints defense has struggled this season, ranking 27th in EPA per play, making it an exploitable matchup for the Falcons.
Back on September 25th, the Saints were as high as 61% favorites for this game. But with how the Falcons played in their last game, along with the fact that the Saints lost at home to the Raiders, the price has moved in Atlanta’s direction. In a game that should come down to the wire and go either way, the Over 47.5 looks like the prudent play.
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