The Kansas City Chiefs appeared poised to make another playoff run following their 31-10 Week 1 rout of the Denver Broncos. This weekend, the Chiefs return to Arrowhead Stadium for a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, who are looking to avoid an 0-2 start to the 2026 NFL regular season.
NFL prediction markets think that Kansas City is a huge favorite to win this game. The Colts’ defense seemed entirely overwhelmed against Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1, giving up 31 first-half points in a game that was practically “over” by the third quarter. Can quarterback Daniel Jones bounce back and get Indianapolis on the right track? Or will the Colts start the season 0-2? Let’s have a look below.
We like Kansas City to win Sunday night by more than 6.5 points. At 73¢ per contract, bargain traders may opt to go with the Colts instead, which we completely understand. We only have one regular-season game to judge both teams, so it’s easy to anticipate that each team may perform differently in primetime on Sunday Night Football.
Still, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs looked extremely solid against a Broncos team that was projected at the start of the season to compete for another AFC Championship Game appearance. The Chiefs limited Bo Nix and were in control throughout the four-quarter contest.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid is sure to have something “special” prepared for a Colts squad led by Shane Steichen. Although Indianapolis had been competitive before their losing streak began in 2025, the Colts have yet to reach the postseason during Steichen’s tenure. We’re picking the Chiefs to win their second consecutive home game of the season by a score of 34-17.
Another standalone NFL game has achieved more than $100 million in total trading volume. Last night’s Buffalo Bills home debut at New Highmark Stadium attracted $110 million in predictions. Despite the current Colts vs. Chiefs market being under half a million dollars, traders can expect this market to near (or surpass) $100 million by the time the game ends on Sunday night.
Last night’s NFL-TNF trading volume was quite impressive for Kalshi, considering that the Bills were ahead 21-0 midway through the second quarter. Prediction market fans will be happy to know that volume is so high compared to last year’s NFL season.
The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won a game since November 9th, 2025, when they bested the Atlanta Falcons in overtime at Lucas Oil Stadium. The team’s eight-game regular season losing streak is the largest active slump of its kind among NFL teams. If the Colts don’t start stringing together some wins soon, head coach Shane Steichen’s job could be forfeit.
Barring any first-half drama, the prediction market prices should remain relatively constant throughout the first half of the Colts at Chiefs game. If the contest plays out as expected, Kansas City’s contract prices could inch upwards to more than 80 cents by halftime.
For all intents and purposes, sports forecasters believe Kansas City will finish the game at 2-0 while the Indianapolis Colts will drop their ninth straight regular season game and start their 2026 campaign with an 0-2 record.
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