Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Miami Gardens this Sunday to take on the Dolphins as NFL prediction markets contemplate the potential for another Week 3 “shock” upset. The Chiefs are massive favorites to roll over Miami at Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday afternoon.
As long as Mahomes’ knee continues to hold up, the Chiefs appear unstoppable after outlasting an inspired Indianapolis Colts team on Sunday Night Football during Week 2. But the 2026 NFL regular season has been full of upsets, including the Falcons’ unexpected 35-14 victory against the Green Bay Packers on TNF.
This is by far the highest trading volume game of the week on Kalshi. More than $1.5 million in “yes/no” contracts have already been purchased ahead of Sunday afternoon. The Kansas City Chiefs’ per-contract prices are through the roof at 86¢ to win and 51¢ to cover the 10.5-point spread.
This is a must-win game for the Miami Dolphins, who were handled by the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 and blown out by the San Francisco 49ers last week. At 15¢ per contract, we think Miami is reasonably priced for bargain hunters looking to hitch their trades to a longshot.
It’s not that we think the Dolphins are favorites, but the contracts are too cheap to pass up, in our view. We’re taking Miami to win Sunday afternoon at any price under 17¢ and are likewise taking the 10.5 points.
Patrick Mahomes and wide receiver Rashee Rice are set to play this Sunday afternoon, despite sore knees. However, defensive tackle Chris Jones is questionable (calf). If ever a chance existed for Dolphins running back De’Von Achane to run around a defense, Week 3 is it.
Chop Robinson has cleared concussion protocol and will suit up for the Dolphins’ defense, a positive sign for a team that will need every player to perform up to his potential to ward off a consistently successful Kansas City offensive attack.
If Super Bowl LX MVP Kenneth Walker III starts eating up yards early in the first quarter, Miami could be in for an extremely long day and could face a potential embarrassment at home.
The Chiefs don’t have a lot of room to move upward in terms of contract price, but they could soar above 90¢ if they jump out to a quick start. By contrast, the Dolphins could experience significant in-game momentum if they keep the game close through the first half.
Traders who are projecting a Miami upset will want to pick up the Dolphins now while their contracts are still listed at 15¢. Given how upset-prone the 2026 NFL regular season has been so far, it won’t take much for anxious forecasters to switch sides if Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t able to put the Dolphins away early.
Kansas City barely squeaked by the Colts in overtime at home. This Sunday afternoon, they’ll be in hot and humid conditions at Hard Rock Stadium. The game will be broadcast on CBS. It starts at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
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