The Detroit Lions (2-1) survived a scare in a 31-24 win over the New York Jets in Week 3. The offense once again moved the ball at will, but the defense continues to be a major issue. Up next is a road game on Sunday Night Football against the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers (1-2) are coming off a close loss against the Cleveland Browns, but there are reasons for optimism in Carolina. Quarterback Bryce Young has made major strides as a passer. Suddenly, what was once a run-heavy offense can now air it out with the best of them.
However, the Panthers are dealing with injuries on defense, which could make it tough for them to hang with the Lions in this game. To that end, let’s dive into NFL prediction markets to see where we can find value.
The Lions are priced at 65 cents to win this game. The market views Detroit as the better team, set for a great spot on the road against an undermanned Panthers defense. However, this feels like too expensive of a price to take here. The Lions have major issues on defense of their own, so I can’t trust them at this cost.
The same goes for the point spread, where the Lions are favored by 3.5 points. That’s too many for a team that has struggled to stop opposing offenses from moving down the field with ease. Remember, the Lions could have easily lost to the Jets last week. They blew a 24-10 lead in the second half.
With that in mind, I’m avoiding choosing a side for this matchup. Instead, I’ll target the total.
I’m going with Over 51.5 points for this game, which is currently priced at 49 cents. Lions’ games have combined for 61, 72, and 55 points so far this season. The only reason why the number is 51.5 is because forecasts call for some rain in this game, but I’m not too concerned there.
When you add in the fact that the Panthers are missing starting cornerbacks Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, it’s going to be tough for them to slow down the Lions. That will likely create a game environment where Bryce Young has to air it out to keep pace with the Lions.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see this Over hit comfortably.
The Lions were 56.5% favorites back on September 27th, but the market has moved significantly in their direction in the last few days, as they’re now 64.6%. The reason for this is the Panthers’ injuries in the secondary. That’s bad news against one of the best offenses in the NFL. With that said, I don’t trust the Lions’ defense, so Over 51.5 looks like the prudent play.
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