Remember when the Los Angeles Rams traded Jared Goff and picks to acquire Matthew Stafford from the Detroit Lions? These two quarterbacks seem to be forever linked, as they’re now the two clear-cut favorites to lead the NFL in passing yards at the best prediction markets.
The question becomes, is it worth it to pay a premium on Stafford or Goff, or is there more value further down the board? Let’s dive in to find out the top trades among quarterback leaders.
At 18 cents, Jared Goff is the best buy to lead the NFL in passing yards. Goff is currently at 1,485 passing yards, 97 behind Matthew Stafford heading into Week 6, but the Lions’ quarterback has a better team context to lead in this category. The reason is simple: Detroit’s defense is abysmal, so Goff will be forced to air it out quite often. With that in mind, Goff is my pick to lead in passing yards.
Matthew Stafford was only around 12 cents to lead in passing yards heading into Week 5, but after a shootout vs. the Bills where he threw for 383 yards, he’s the clear-cut favorite. With that said, it’s not a good time to buy into Stafford. If you target him now, you’re paying a peak price.
Despite their 2-3 record, the Rams remain one of the best teams in the NFL. It’s unlikely that they’re going to have to air it out at such a high rate, especially when Myles Garrett returns and the defense starts to play up to high expectations.
The Rams’ schedule gets a lot easier right now. For the next five games, they face the Cardinals (twice), Raiders, Chargers, and Commanders. These are games that could turn into blowouts, where the Rams can lean on the running game and not ask much out of Stafford. To that end, we could see Stafford’s price plummet after this stretch. That means if you want to buy into him, wait until after this five-game sample.
As mentioned above, Jared Goff is my Expert Pick to lead the NFL in passing yards. The Lions defense is atrocious, forcing Goff to air it out as the team continues to play in shootouts on a weekly basis.
Looking at the Lions’ upcoming schedule following their Week 6 bye, they’ve got the Packers, Dolphins, Patriots, Buccaneers, and Bears. We could see them get into shootouts with Green Bay, New England, and Chicago, where Goff can eclipse 300 yards in each of those matchups.
Since Stafford has a much better defense behind him, that makes Goff the better trade right now, especially since you get him at a reduced cost.
Aside from Stafford and Goff, we can look for value further down the board at trending NFL prediction markets.
Dak Prescott (13 cents) is another appealing buy because the Cowboys haven’t shown any improvements despite bolstering their roster this offseason. This team context forces Dak to air it out at a high rate.
Bryce Young (10 cents) has taken a leap in his development, evolving from a game manager leading a run-heavy offense into a defacto point guard peppering his wideouts in a pass-heavy scheme. It’s impressive to see such a breakout from a formerly struggling young signal-caller.
Each of these quarterbacks is a nice value, but I have two favorite longshots.
The first is Jordan Love (7 cents), who is currently third in passing yards with 1,408. The Packers have zero running game right now, so they’ve morphed into a pass-heavy offense.
Another appealing longshot is C.J. Stroud (4 cents). He’s got an extremely appealing price despite being fourth in passing yards. Like the Packers, the Texans don’t have a good running game. They also traded for Marvin Harrison Jr., giving them a strong group of wideouts that also includes Nico Collins and Kayshon Boutte.
The only concern is the Texans’ defense, but Stroud is still a good enough value at 4 cents if you’re looking for a longshot.
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