We learned quite a bit about how important home-field advantage can be for an NFL team last night, as the Buffalo Bills jumped out to an eye-popping start to the first half, securing a 41-31 victory over the Detroit Lions. This Sunday, Week 2 continues with a highly anticipated matchup between the 1-0 Minnesota Vikings as they travel to Soldier Field to take on the 1-0 Chicago Bears.
NFL prediction markets are pretty hyped about this game already, putting in nearly $900,000 in trades on the outcome with roughly 48 hours remaining until kickoff. As one might expect, the Bears are favored on Kalshi to win this game after posting 59 points in their season-opener against the Panthers. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ prices have dropped down to 35¢ despite their upset victory over the Packers in Week 1.
Are the Chicago Bears truly worth their 66¢ per-contract price for this Sunday afternoon’s matchup? It’s close, in our view. Running back D’Andre Swift ran for three touchdowns last week against Carolina en route to a 124 rushing-yard performance on 18 carries. Caleb Williams successfully managed the game and led his team to 59 points with two passing touchdowns.
The Vikings weren’t expected to win last week against the Packers, but were clearly the better team despite losing starting quarterback Kyler Murray to concussion protocol. Carson Wentz filled in just fine, throwing for three touchdowns and avoiding any interceptions. Murray is day-to-day and has seen limited practice time so far, which means that Carson Wentz could start Sunday against the Bears.
We like the Bears to win this game at home, but also think their contract price is just a tad high. Regardless, we’re going with the Bears at 66¢ on Kalshi and are willing to give up 4.5 points on the spread due to their Week 1 offensive explosion.
Justin Jefferson appears to be a potent force on the field regardless of who is throwing the ball at quarterback. The former 2019 LSU championship receiver hauled in eight catches and scored two touchdowns against Green Bay last week. If he gets going early, the Bears might need to post 50+ points again just to keep up.
Traders who are looking for a “chink in the armor” of the Bears’ 66¢ contract price might want to look at the defensive side of the ball, where Chicago gave up 37 points despite winning by three possessions. Yes, the Bears defenders were aggressive and caused three turnovers, but Minnesota’s prolific passing attack should be out in full force this Sunday.
Despite the two-to-one edge for the Bears, this market could draw close to even if the Vikings are able to score an early touchdown and keep Chicago out of the end zone. Savvy traders will want to keep a close eye on the in-game contract-price movements if that happens.
A capacity crowd is expected to attend the Bears’ first home game of the season. Cable viewers can watch all the action on Fox, while live streamers will want to get a YouTube TV subscription to watch the game in its entirety.
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