Thursday Night Football returns to Amazon Prime tomorrow for a key cross-conference matchup between the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Chicago Bears are favored on prediction market apps to win this game, which will catapult the victorious team to a 5-2 regular season record.
Both the Patriots and the Bears came very close to achieving 5-1 records to start the season. If Drake Maye hadn’t thrown three interceptions in the fourth quarter against Seattle, and if Caleb Williams hadn’t gotten hurt in the final quarter against the Vikings, tomorrow night’s game would carry even more postseason implications.
Be that as it may, NFL prediction markets have placed the Patriots’ offensive injuries into their trading calculus and come out with a clear favorite: the Chicago Bears. With more than $2 million already traded on this market, the Bears’ per-contract price is hovering around 60¢ on Kalshi.
Caleb Williams is fully cleared to start tomorrow night for Chicago. His name has been removed from the injury report altogether, but New England will start the evening missing three key components.
Wide receiver Romeo Doubs is on the IR list. Right guard Ben Brown (knee) and left guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) have also been ruled out for the Thursday Night Football contest. That leaves quarterback Drake Maye vulnerable to the Bears’ pass rush and without one of his main receiving weapons. A.J. Brown still doesn’t appear to be at 100% and has been limited in practice this week.
The Bears went 4-for-4 in the red zone against the Falcons last week and are looking to capitalize on the improving mobility of quarterback Caleb Williams. So far this season, Chicago owns the highest single-game point tally (59 against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1). If Williams gets hot and can prove he’s truly recovered from injury with his legs, the Bears could end the game with more than 35 points on the board. That’s the main reason we’re taking the “over” on the “totals” market.
Drake Maye’s decision-making hasn’t been up to par this season. Although he hasn’t had another awful quarter (like he did against the Seahawks), he’s still throwing passes under pressure that are “up for grabs.” The Patriots have only scored 30 points or more in one game this season, at home against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 5.
The Patriots’ three-game winning streak includes an impressive victory over the Buffalo Bills, but the team was blown out 35-6 by the Jacksonville Jaguars the week before their current winning streak began.
Both the point spread and “totals” markets are susceptible to in-game market movements during the first half. Traders are likely to heavily emphasize all Chicago scoring along with New England offensive struggles for at least the first quarter.
Our recommendation is to pay special attention to blitz packages that the Bears send toward Maye in the first quarter to see how the quarterback reacts. If Maye shows vulnerability to the Chicago pass rush, it could be a very long night for the Patriots, one that sends them to a 4-3 record.
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