Unlike Offensive Rookie of the Year, where Cardinals’ running back Jeremiyah Love is the clear favorite, we’ve got a wide-open field for Defensive Rookie of the Year. This is highlighted by No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, who could be the main threat on a revamped Jets defense. But there’s a screaming buy in NFL prediction markets right now.
It’s none other than Giants’ linebacker Arvell Reese, who is severely underpriced right now.
At 12 cents, Arvell Reese is ranked 4th among rookies in Kalshi pricing, behind David Bailey, Rueben Bain Jr., and Caleb Downs. This is too cheap a price for a talented player surrounded by stud pass rushers like Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Abdul Carter. Reese is going to be put in a great spot to succeed right out of the gate.
It’s no surprise to see David Bailey as the favorite because he was the second overall pick. The former Texas Tech standout was touted as a polished prospect who can make an immediate impact at the professional level. The Jets have a rebuilding defense, so Bailey has to play a major role right away.
The problem here is that you’re paying up for a player who has an underwhelming supporting cast, which means that it may be difficult for him to make a major impact as a rookie. The good news is that word out of camp has been overwhelmingly positive, with players praising how fast Bailey’s first step has been.
The market has moved a lot on Bailey, as high as 24% on August 11th, before falling to its current 17% price. It’s likely that his price spiked after those positive camp reports before stabilizing at the current number. Personally, I see more value down the board.
Rueben Bain Jr. went later than expected in this year’s NFL Draft because of question marks about his short arms compared to other edge rushers. However, he was extremely productive at Miami, putting up 15.5 tackles for a loss and 9.5 sacks last season.
The Bucs’ biggest weakness is their pass rush, so Bain will be asked to take on a major role right away. Like Bailey, Bain has gotten positive reports out of camp, especially in joint practice with the Jets, where he won several reps.
But as co-favorite with Bailey, it feels like his price is a bit too expensive right now. Just like with Bailey, Bain doesn’t have a great supporting cast, meaning he may have to deal with double teams at times. That could suppress his production and make it tougher to win this award.
Caleb Downs is a defensive back who can make a major impact right away. He’ll immediately take on a leadership role for an improved Cowboys defense. Dallas’ defense was its weakness last year, so if they can get better thanks to Downs, he’ll be in a good spot to win this award.
Just like with Bailey and Bain, Downs has been living up to the hype so far. The issue is that he plays safety, making it harder to win this award over edge rushers, who are considered more valuable positions.
To that end, Downs may have to rack up interceptions to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, which can be difficult. For that reason, I’m out on this price.
Arvell Reese is the best buy on the board right now. Let’s not forget that the No. 2 pick was a debate between Bailey and Reese for months before the latter unexpectedly fell to 5th overall. Reese is going to play inside linebacker for the Giants, but he’s more of a hybrid player who can rush the passer or drop back in coverage.
There are a lot of similarities between Reese and Micah Parsons in that regard. Playing on a defense stacked with elite talents like Abdul Carter and Brian Burns, Reese can avoid double teams and add to his sack totals more easily than others on this list.
It’s a great time to buy Reese because he was priced at 17% only a couple of weeks ago. Reports out of camp indicate that Reese is displaying his freakish athleticism, demonstrating just how high his ceiling is. At 12%, his price is very appealing compared to the other favorites. He’s a screaming buy right now.
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