We’re getting closer to August, which means it’s a great time to look at what’s trending in NFL prediction markets. Buying into players before preseason starts is a good way to find value.
In this article, we’re going to focus on Offensive Rookie of the Year. This year’s crop of rookies is headlined by playmakers like Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love and Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza. While quarterbacks have won this award in four of the last seven seasons, this feels like a year where it could go to another position.
There are five top contenders for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year this season.
Jeremiyah Love came out of this year’s draft considered to be one of the best running back prospects in recent memory. The former Notre Dame standout rushed for 1,372 yards and 18 touchdowns while adding 280 receiving yards in his final season with the Fighting Irish.
While the Cardinals have a crowded backfield that also includes Tyler Allgeier, Love has the ability to make a major impact on the ground and through the air. Love has both the talent and opportunity to become the first running back to win Offensive Rookie of the Year since Saquon Barkley in 2018. Love is my prediction to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I’m a big fan of Raiders quarterback, first overall pick, and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. He’s a polished prospect who will get to play with studs like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. If he can lead the Raiders to exceed expectations, he’s certainly in play for this award.
Here’s the problem: the Raiders want to be patient with Mendoza. They brought in veteran Kirk Cousins to handle the offense while Mendoza learns on the sidelines. While I still think Mendoza will end up starting sooner than planned, there’s risk that he’ll miss a chunk of the season. With that in mind, it’s a better idea to wait to buy in once Mendoza starts the year on the bench. You’ll get a better price than 19 cents.
Carnell Tate was the first wide receiver off the board in this year’s draft. The Titans brought him in to become the new top target for second-year quarterback Cam Ward. To that end, Tate has a ton of opportunity to stuff the stat sheet, putting up good enough numbers to take home this hardware.
Unlike other rookie receivers, there’s no clear-cut No. 1 in Tennessee, so Tate will get plenty of targets here. With wideouts winning this award in three of the last five seasons, Tate is a rock-solid buy at this price. He’s my second choice behind Love.
Jordyn Tyson is a talented wideout who gets to play next to Chris Olave and Tyler Shough on the Saints. While this is good because Olave’s presence will free up room for Tyson, it also means that he could see fewer targets than Tate with the Titans.
With that in mind, Tyson is a bit overpriced at 15%. I think he should be a bit cheaper than Tate considering that he has a more crowded path to heavy volume. I don’t recommend buying into Tyson at this price.
Jadarian Price has a chance to lead the Seahawks backfield, as Kenneth Walker signed with the Chiefs and Zach Charbonnet is recovering from a torn ACL.
But he’s not as much of a game-breaking talent as college teammate Jeremiyah Love. If I’m buying into a running back to win this award, it’s Love over Price, even at the more expensive cost.
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