Let’s head to the best prediction markets to dive into what could be a low-key Super Bowl preview between the Green Bay Packers (5-3) and the New England Patriots (5-3).
We have two quarterbacks playing at a high level here in Jordan Love and Drake Maye, so it should be an intriguing matchup. Each team comes into this game in top form, winning four of their last five games.
So, without further ado, let’s get right into Packers vs. Patriots in Week 9.
The Patriots are favored at 62 cents in this game, which makes sense due to their home-field advantage. The point spread is Patriots -3.5, priced at 47 cents. The total comes in at 44.5 points, with the Over favored at 52 cents.
I mentioned how this is a game featuring two great quarterbacks, but we have to acknowledge their defenses as well. Each team has what it takes to slow down the opposing offense in this one. It could be a close game that comes down to the wire, but one where points are hard to come by.
This game can go either way. I don’t want to pay 62 cents on the Patriots to win, nor do I think -3.5 on the point spread is worth the investment.
When looking at NFL prediction markets, I see the best value on the total. That’s why I’m going with Under 44.5 points at 49 cents.
Take a look at what the Packers’ defense has given up in their last five games. Here are the points allowed: 19, 17, 13, 7, and 14. The same can be said for the Patriots: 19, 24, 19, 17, and 26.
The Packers have a tough time running the ball, making their offense a bit one-dimensional. That could make it difficult for this to turn into a high-scoring game.
The weather report is also favorable for a low-scoring matchup, as temperatures are projected to dip into the high 40s, while there’s some slight risk of rain.
Since this total is at 44.5, we’re getting above a key number here. That means that we can win this trade with common scorelines like 23-20 or 24-20. We’re likely looking at a hard-fought, close game between two of the best teams in the NFL, where the Under looks more appealing.
The Packers were actually 53% favorites back on Nov. 1, but the market has moved considerably to the Patriots’ side, as they’re now at 61%. This is merely due to more volume being traded on this game, as early prices can be volatile when activity is still low. In a matchup between two elite teams, going with the total feels like the safer trade.
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