We’ve got yet another international game on tap for Week 10, this time for Patriots vs Lions in Munich, Germany, so let’s head to the best prediction market apps to find value.
The Patriots (5-4) have been a rollercoaster this season. At times, they’ve looked ready to return to the Super Bowl, such as when they went into Buffalo and beat the Bills in an impressive road victory. Other times, they look like they’ll miss the playoffs, such as last week’s blowout home loss to the Packers.
It doesn’t get any easier for New England, as up next is the red-hot Lions (6-2). Detroit has now won four in a row, with their defense showing improvement, giving up a combined 24 points in their last two games. They’ve now held their last three opponents to fewer than 20 points.
This has the makings of an exciting game, so let’s look where the value lies for this Week 10 matchup.
The Lions are favored at 58 cents for this game. The point spread is Lions -2.5, priced at 53 cents. The low number makes sense because it’s a neutral field. With how inconsistent the Patriots have been this year, the Lions deserve to be favored.
The total comes in at 50.5 points, which reflects how each of these offenses is capable of putting up high scorelines. There’s a chance that this game can turn into a shootout, especially with how the Patriots have struggled on defense of late.
This sets up as a game that comes down to the wire. I truly think it can go either way. That’s why I’m not going to buy into either side at NFL prediction markets.
Instead, I’ll buy into Over 50.5 points at 50 cents. There are several factors why I like the Over here. For one, weather conditions look favorable, as forecasts don’t call for rain in this one. On top of that, we’ve seen the Patriots’ defense struggle lately.
Last week, Jordan Love torched New England for 372 yards and three touchdowns. The Packers ended up putting up 45 points. In Week 8, New England only allowed 19 points, but that was vs. the Dolphins, who have one of the worst offenses. Malik Willis was able to throw for 211 yards in that game (he averages only 174.5). In Week 7, New England gave up 30 points vs. the Bears.
In other words, when the Patriots have faced good offenses lately, like the Packers and Bears, they’ve had a tough time. The Lions have one of the best offenses in the league, stacked with playmakers like Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams.
Then you have to consider that Patriots’ running back Rhamondre Stevenson may be sidelined, while wideout AJ Brown has a chance to return. That could result in a more pass-heavy gameplan for New England, which bodes well for Over 50.5.
There hasn’t been much market movement for this game, as the Lions have stayed around 57% favorites in this neutral game environment. There’s an outside chance that this is a Super Bowl preview, giving the fans in Germany an intriguing matchup here.
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