The Buffalo Bills (3-1) are coming off a disappointing loss at home against their division rivals, the New England Patriots. Buffalo has now turned in back-to-back poor performances, as they almost lost to the Los Angeles Chargers the week before that. They’ll look to get back on track on Monday Night Football.
However, it’s a tough spot against the Los Angeles Rams (2-2), who just put together an impressive comeback win on the road in rainy weather vs. the Philadelphia Eagles. Puka Nacua is back healthy, while Kyren Williams is playing the best football of his career. In other words, the offense is humming right now.
This is a projected shootout in a primetime game, but is the total too high? Let’s take a closer look at the best prediction markets to see where the best value in NFL trades is for this pivotal game.
The Rams are priced at 62 cents to win this game. Los Angeles is favored by 3.5 points (52 cents), while the total is at 54.5 points, with the Under favored at 52 cents.
It makes sense to see the Rams as favorites in this one because they’re at home. Plus, Bills’ top wideout DJ Moore is banged up for this game. With how disappointing Buffalo has looked vs. the Patriots and the Chargers in recent weeks, they’re in a tough spot vs. the Rams.
Los Angeles gets to breathe a sigh of relief for finally getting to play at home here. They opened the season in Brazil and then played two of their next three games on the road.
I lean towards the Rams as my pick in choosing a side, but I don’t see enough value in buying into them at 62 cents or taking them at -3.5, since if they only win by a field goal, you lose that one. Instead, we’ll focus on the total, going with Under 54.5 at 52 cents.
The biggest key for me here is that DJ Moore is banged up for the Bills. While he’s likely to play, there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll see limited snaps. On top of that, Aaron Donald is set to return for the Rams. He can be a disruptive presence in the middle, affecting the Bills’ rushing efficiency, which could make them more one-dimensional.
Aside from that, it’s a high number in what should be a close game. This could be a preview of the Super Bowl. Even in a high-scoring game with a common scoreline like 28-24, we’d win this trade. With that in mind, we’ll stick with the Under here.
As one of the NFL prediction markets with the most volume since it’s Monday Night Football, we can see some market movement here. Back on October 4th, the Rams were only 54% favorites, but they’ve moved to 62 cents. This is a reaction to the Bills losing at home vs. the Patriots. Plus, they almost lost to the Chargers, who are still winless. Simply put, the Bills have been trending downward in recent weeks, making this a tough spot for them.
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