The Baltimore Ravens (3-1) survived a close call vs. the Tennessee Titans last week. They’ll try to win their third game in a row on Sunday Night Football. But it’s a tough test on the road against a red-hot team.
The Atlanta Falcons (2-2) have completely turned their season around since Michael Penix Jr. returned to the lineup. After blowing out the Green Bay Packers on Week 3 Thursday Night Football, they did the exact same thing to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football. They’ll try to keep it rolling in their third straight primetime game on Sunday Night Football.
The biggest concern is that the Ravens are likely to be without quarterback Lamar Jackson. But is there enough value at the best prediction markets to buy into the Falcons? Let’s dive in.
The Falcons are priced at 62 cents to win this game. The market is expecting Lamar Jackson to miss this game, as he’s dealing with an ankle injury. That would force backup Tyler Huntley under center, which is a significant downgrade for the Ravens offense. Facing a Falcons offense that is firing on all cylinders, that’s a major issue.
The point spread is Falcons -3.5 at 48 cents, while the total sits at 43.5 points, with the Over at 52 cents. I don’t want to pay up at 62 cents to choose an outright winner, nor do I want to lay 3.5 on an inconsistent Falcons team. Instead, we’ll look for value on the total.
I’m going with Ravens/Falcons Under 43.5 at 49 cents. What I like about this trade is that we’re getting above the key number of 43 with this Under. That means that a common score line like 23-20 will still be a win.
With Tyler Huntley likely at quarterback, expect the Ravens to lean on Derrick Henry and the running game. On the other side, the Falcons have been dominant running the ball as well with Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson Jr.
What does a run-heavy game environment mean? It means longer possessions, slower pace, and fewer points. In other words, it’s the perfect recipe for an Under.
As one of the NFL prediction markets with the most volume, since it’s a primetime game on Sunday Night Football, it’s not surprising to see such significant market movement. However, this is even more than usual. The Ravens opened the week as three-point favorites, but the Falcons are now -3.5. That highlights how important Lamar Jackson is to Baltimore. His absence is a major loss. But Under 43.5 looks like the best trade because of the downgrade to the Ravens’ offense.
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