The Defensive Player of the Year has two heavy favorites. These are two of the best edge rushers in the NFL, including Will Anderson Jr. of the Houston Texans and Aidan Hutchinson of the Detroit Lions. Anderson is coming off a 12-sack season, now racking up double-digit sacks in consecutive seasons. Hutchinson had 14.5 sacks last year, carrying the Lions defense.
But is there anyone worth taking in NFL prediction markets with more value than these two? Let’s take a closer look.
I’m going with a longshot target to win Defensive Player of the Year, buying into Philadelphia Eagles’ defensive tackle at three cents. This is the kind of target that you can buy into and exit your position for an early profit if Carter gets off to a strong start. Simply put, Carter is a one-man wrecking crew in the interior of the Eagles’ defense, capable of making a major impact in pass rush and run defense. He looks undervalued at the current price.
It’s not surprising to see Will Anderson Jr. at the top of the board. This is one of the most talented edge rushers in the NFL, capable of racking up 15+ sacks in a season. What’s favorable for Anderson is his supporting cast. The Texans have an incredible defense, stacked at all three levels of the field. That means Anderson doesn’t have to carry the load here.
To that end, with fewer double-teams than other elite defensive players, we could see Anderson put up plenty of sacks this season. With how talented the Texans are on defense, this may be one of the best we’ve seen in recent memory. As the best player on an elite defense, Anderson can endear himself to Defensive Player of the Year voters with a big season.
With edge rushers locking in this award in three of the last four seasons, Anderson looks like one of the most likely winners this time around.
Aidan Hutchinson is another elite pass rusher who impressively just put up 14.5 sacks for the Lions. Unlike the Texans, the Lions aren’t nearly as talented on defense. That means that Hutchinson will have to carry this group.
That can work in two different ways. For one, Hutchinson can put the team on his back, drawing double teams, allowing other players to perform. If that happens and the Lions’ defense exceeds expectations, Hutchinson would have a chance for this award.
But it can also work against him. As the biggest threat up front for the Lions, opposing teams can make him the focal point of who they want to slow down. That could make it tough for Hutchinson to rack up sacks.
However, that’s obviously easier said than done, and we saw Hutchinson get 14.5 sacks last year in similar circumstances. With that in mind, Hutchinson looks like a worthy No. 2 favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Unlike Anderson and Hutchinson, Jalen Carter is an interior rusher instead of an edge rusher. That makes it a lot more difficult to accumulate sacks. However, we saw Aaron Donald win this award on three occasions, and Carter has the ability to be a difference-maker on the inside.
Playing for an Eagles defense that remains one of the best in the NFL, Carter looks like a terrific longshot at three cents. It’s the ideal combination of talent and situation with an appealing price.
We also have to remember that there is always significant injury risk in the NFL. If Anderson or Hutchinson is forced to miss action, that would hurt their chances to win this award. With that in mind, it makes a lot of sense to focus on a longshot in this market, where Carter certainly fits the bill.
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