The Minnesota Vikings (6-2) have dropped two in a row, relinquishing their lead in the NFC North. Their current rough patch was due to abysmal quarterback play, forcing the team to bring back former QB Kirk Cousins, acquiring him at the trade deadline. Since Cousins already knows head coach Kevin O’Connell’s system, this should be a seamless transition.
On the other side, the Green Bay Packers (6-3) are rolling right now, winning four of their last five games. Quarterback Jordan Love is playing the best football of his career, while Christian Watson and Matthew Golden look like legitimate No. 1 wideouts.
This should be a game that comes down to the wire, so let’s dive into the best prediction markets to see where the top value trades are for this NFC North game with massive playoff implications.
The Packers are favored at 59 cents for this game. The point spread is Packers -3.5, priced at 47 cents. This makes sense because the Packers have home-field advantage, looking to avoid a sweep after dropping the first matchup between these two teams. Green Bay is also in better form right now, fresh off an impressive road victory against the Patriots.
The total is listed at 42.5 points, which feels a bit low considering how well the Packers’ passing game is playing right now. However, the Vikings have the best defense in the NFL, capable of slowing down even the most explosive offenses. We saw them keep Josh Allen at bay last week, so they can certainly do something similar vs. Green Bay.
If I’m choosing a side here, I prefer the Packers, but I think they’re a bit too expensive at 59 cents. I also don’t want to go with Packers -3.5, since this game can come down to the last-minute field goal. That’s why I’m sticking with the total at NFL prediction markets.
I’m going Under 42.5 because this is a matchup between two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Vikings rank 1st in EPA, while the Packers are 10th. Minnesota has allowed 23 points or fewer in seven consecutive games. Green Bay has given up fewer than 20 points in five of their last six.
With so much on the line in this divisional matchup, I’m predicting a tightly contested game between two rivals. It also helps that this game is outdoors at Lambeau Field. It wouldn’t surprise me to see a 20-17 type of final scoreline.
Back on Nov. 10 at 1 p.m. ET, the Packers were listed as 66% favorites. The reason that price was so high was that the Vikings had just gotten blown out by the Bills on Monday Night Football, where quarterback Carson Wentz was atrocious. But after trading for Kirk Cousins, the market moved in the Vikings’ direction due to the upgrade at quarterback. With that said, the Under looks like the safer trade here.
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