After failing to qualify for the playoffs, the Toronto Maple Leafs managed to win the draft lottery, giving them the first overall pick in 2026. With a lot of talented youngsters coming through, all eyes are on the Leaf’s choice.
The name on everybody’s lips is Gavin McKenna – the 18-year-old Penn State star. He’s the current leading choice for first overall draft at Polymarket, with an 89% chance of being number one pick. This market has already attracted $1+ million in trades but is moving fast. Let’s jump into the numbers to see how you can trade on this contract.
It’s time once again for the Upper Deck NHL Draft, the annual pick of the world’s best ice hockey talent. In 2026, first honors go to the Toronto Maple Leafs, putting newly appointed manager John Chayka and senior executive advisor Mats Sundin straight into the action.
The biggest name among prospective drafts is undoubtedly Gavin McKenna, the Penn State University star. Currently number one in the NHL Central Scouting’s ranking of North American skaters, McKenna has had a very impressive season. In the NCAA, McKenna ended in joint fifth place, with 51 points (including 15 goals and 36 assists), giving him an average of 1.46 points per game in 35 outings. He was also Big Ten Freshman of the Year and player of the year in the Western Hockey League. It’s not surprising then, that McKenna has a 89% chance of being the first pick in the draft.
McKenna’s credentials are impressive but recent comments from John Chayka have suggested that the Maple Leafs could be looking for an alternative, which would most likely be Ivar Stenberg. A Swedish under-20 international, Stenberg is number one in the NHL Central Scouting’s ranking of International skaters. This season, Stenberg has scored 11 goals and provided 22 assists in 43 games for Frölunda HC, a team in the Swedish Hockey League, giving him the most points for an 18-year-old player since the 1998-99 season.
Stenberg is currently second in Polymarket’s rankings, with a 12% chance of being the first draft pick. There are also several other prospects in the mix, including Caleb Malhotra and Chase Reid, whose numbers have fluctuated significantly at Polymarket:
Despite being a complete center package, Caleb Malhotra looks unlikely to be the number one draft pick. He’s lost ground at Polymarket and looks as though he may slip to number three or four in the draft where his skills could be a good fit for the Vancouver Canucks.
Defensive player Reid has had a stellar college career and is likely to be high up in the draft. But, while Reid is a strong pick, it’s thought that he could be an especially good choice for the San Jose Sharks, who have the second choice in the draft.
As things stand, traders at Polymarket are speculating that Gavin McKenna has the highest chance of being the number one pick, with an 89% probability. We have seen this reach as high as 92%, which makes sense given McKenna’s strong stats. The gap between McKenna and Ivar Stenberg is big; Stenberg holds a 12% chance of being number one pick but we have seen this reach up to 25%.
The first round of the official 2026 draft will be held at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York on the 26th June, with rounds 2-7 held the day after. In the past few days, this market at Polymarket has shifted dramatically and we expect there to be lots of movement before we get to June 26th.
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Have a look at the table below for the contract prices for this market right now at Polymarket:
| NHL first draft pick | Implied probability | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McKenna | 89% | 89¢ | 13.6¢ |
| Ivar Stenberg | 12% | 13¢ | 88.2¢ |
| Caleb Malhotra | 2% | 3.8¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Chase Reid | 2% | 3.2¢ | 99.5¢ |
Who do you think will be the number one pick in the 2026 NHL draft? Will the Maple Leafs take advantage of the first choice to snag Gavin McKenna, or will they consider dominant winger Ivan Stenberg a better fit for their team? A lot can change before the June draft, and we expect this market to shift significantly at Polymarket. You can make your choice now by clicking on our banners to check out all of Polymarket’s prediction markets.
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