Indiana stunned the college football world by winning the National Championship last season, but it’s Notre Dame and Ohio State that are viewed as the co-favorites for this upcoming season’s title.
With the 2026 college football season kicking off in under a month, let’s dive into the top teams from Kalshi’s National Championship winner market.
Kalshi and other top prediction markets see the race for the National Championship as a wide-open one. College football is one of the more volatile sports, with team turnover and rapid player development causing significant changes year-on-year. The expansion to a 12-team playoff and increased transfer portal activity have only made college football more unpredictable
Notre Dame and Ohio State might be on top, but their lead is marginal, with a group of six teams all boasting “yes” contracts of between 13¢ and 9¢.
Notre Dame was controversially left out of the College Football Playoff (CFP) at the final hurdle last season, but Kalshi sees the Fighting Irish as the co-favorites this time around. It’s easy to understand why. Quarterback CJ Carr had an outstanding freshman season, throwing 24 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He’s the Heisman Trophy favorite for a reason.
Marcus Freeman is undoubtedly one of the best coaches in the sport. No coach has more than Freeman’s five bowl wins since he took the job in 2022. There are questions about the backfield, though. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price both left for the NFL, so Aneyas Williams will lead an unproven running back group.
Following last year’s controversy, the CFP altered its rules to give Notre Dame, an independent, a special exemption. This grants the Fighting Irish an automatic playoff berth if it finishes in the top 12 of the CFP rankings. With a weak schedule, Notre Dame would have to crumble to not have a place in the CFP and a shot at the National Championship.
Ohio State is right alongside Notre Dame, looking to make up for a disappointing end to last season. The Buckeyes looked like genuine National Championship contenders for much of the campaign and earned the No. 2 seed. But they fell to Miami in the quarterfinals. There is every reason to believe Ohio State can make good on that potential this time
Quarterback Julian Sayin was a Heisman finalist last season after throwing for 3,610 yards and 32 touchdowns. But Sayin isn’t even the best player on his own offense. That honor goes to receiver Jeremiah Smith. Finally, Ohio State has a coach in Ryan Day who knows how to win a National Championship after doing so at the end of the 2024/25 season.
Texas’ National Championship hopes are all about Arch Manning. The Longhorns quarterback trails only Notre Dame’s Carr in Kalshi’s Heisman market. After a slow start to last season, Manning looked like the passer everyone expected him to be down the stretch. In the final six games of the season, he threw 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions and went 5-1.
Manning will have better weapons, too. Transfer Cam Coleman will pair with Ryan Wingo to give Texas a dynamic 1-2 punch at receiver. Meanwhile, head coach Steve Sarkisian has turned Texas back into a perennial top team after years of stagnation. He has three straight seasons with 10+ wins. Finally, the Longhorns also have perhaps the best pass-rusher in college football in Colin Simmons, who had 12 sacks a year ago.
Oregon made the CFP semifinals last season, and Kalshi sees the Ducks as just behind the favorites at 11¢ for “yes” contracts. Oregon has been a consistent threat under Dan Lanning, winning 48 games and only losing 6 since he took the reins in 2022. But the Ducks haven’t quite been able to get over the hump.
A huge boost to Oregon’s chances of doing so was Dante Moore’s decision to return for another season, despite being projected as a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Moore threw for 30 touchdowns last season, and it was his first year as a starter. Oregon will also return nearly all of its defensive starters from a year ago, when it ranked 12th in points allowed per game.
Georgia can never be written off, even if the team isn’t quite as strong as in years past. The Bulldogs were the SEC champions the last two seasons, and Kirby Smart is arguably the best coach in the sport. He led Georgia to back-to-back National Championships in 2021 and 2022.
While the rushing attack should be as strong as ever, the passing game does have some questions to answer. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is back, but six of the seven leading receivers from 2025 are no longer here. Georgia will once again rely on a dominant defense and ground game while the aerial attack gets up to speed.
Last year’s National Championship winners sit sixth at Kalshi at 9¢. Winning back-to-back titles is hard enough, but doing so after losing your Heisman Trophy quarterback is a monumental task. But if anyone can do it, it’s Curt Cignetti. The coach’s turnaround of one of the worst programs in college football into a National Championship winner is nothing short of miraculous.
No one can replace Fernando Mendoza, but transfer quarterback Josh Hoover is an experienced player with a history of success at TCU. Hoover won’t be short of weapons, with Charlie Becker and fellow transfer Nick Marsh and Turbo Richard. To help ease the pressure off Hoover, Indiana will again ride its elite defense, which allowed just 11.7 points per game in 2025.
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