New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has overtaken California Governor Gavin Newsom as the lead candidate projected to win the 2028 Democratic nomination for US president, according to Kalshi.
The move represents a growing trend within political prediction markets that show podcast host (and California governor) Gavin Newsom losing ground to the progressive congresswoman and Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff. But will these trends hold? Our thoughts on Kalshi’s $180 million (and growing) market are below.
Since Zohran Mamdani won the mayoral election in New York City, the Democratic Party has seen a shift toward progressive politics. Dr. Abdul El-Sayed recently won the party’s primary election for an open Senate seat in Michigan, and Francesca Hong was narrowly defeated (by less than one percentage point) in her bid to be on the November general election ballot for Wisconsin governor.
At 84 years of age, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders may no longer be the ordained standard-bearer for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. This brings the (much) younger Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez into the picture as a politician who may be able to unite Democrats ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
As we see it, Ocasio-Cortez was destined to overtake Gavin Newsom as the Democratic frontrunner once El-Sayed secured his primary victory in Michigan. However, the California governor may only have himself to blame for his recent prediction market collapse.
Since the failed 2008 vice-presidential bid of then-Alaska governor Sarah Palin, voters have been treated to commentary that included governors’ “executive experience” as a main talking point justifying their existence on a general election ticket. But California Governor Gavin Newsom’s podcast may be presenting a contradictory argument.
The “This Is Gavin Newsom” show may provide potential voters with intriguing guests and interesting topics, but some may argue it hasn’t done much in terms of showcasing Newsom’s “executive” acumen. As the current governor in one of the country’s most important states, critics argue that Newsom has offered viewers little to nothing when it comes to solving issues within the state he currently holds the most powerful political position in.
Instead of using his podcast platform to work on matters that impact voters where he’s responsible for governing, the affable Newsom has been criticized for exhausting a considerable amount of his discretionary time being a podcast personality. For this reason, we believe the California governor’s 16¢ contracts to become the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nominee are too risky.
The bar for entering a presidential race for any party is somewhat low. This means there could be dozens of contenders before the Democratic Party’s nomination process begins whittling down the field to just a few feasible candidates.
Still, we believe Ocasio-Cortez is the most logical choice to be “the chosen one” to take over the Democratic Party at some point next year. Bernie Sanders is closer to 120 years old than 40 years old. The New York Representative for the 14th Congressional District will still be under 40 by the time voters head to the polls to select a new president in 2028.
Prediction market forecasters may find that her blend of youth, legislative experience, and progressive politics that Ocasio-Cortez offers is unbeatable within her own party, not to mention the historic nature of her potential candidacy (to become the youngest and first female US president). We think her 18¢ per-contract price could be indeed justified at this point in the race.
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