Last year’s top 5 matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns left a lot to be desired. Neither team played up to its potential, and the final score of 14-7 in the Buckeyes’ favor didn’t reflect the offensive potential that each squad possessed.
This year, the Longhorns and Buckeyes are again ranked in the top 5 near the start of the season. The main difference that traders on prediction markets will notice is that Saturday night’s showcase college football game will take place at DKR in Austin, giving Arch Manning and the Longhorns an important home-field advantage, if they can capitalize on it.
Ranked No. 1 in the country, the Ohio State Buckeyes are led by head coach Ryan Day and quarterback Julian Sayin, who transferred from Alabama two years ago. Statistically speaking, the weekend’s game should be an offensive “shootout” that easily covers the “over” trades on total points.
Yet these two teams have a recent history of not playing their best football when they face off against each other. Julian Sayin was held to just 126 passing yards in last year’s season opener. Earlier in 2025, Ohio State defeated Texas 28-14 in the Cotton Bowl, but the game still didn’t live up to its promise of delivering a true heavyweight showdown.
We like the Buckeyes this Saturday, and we’re buying contracts on an Ohio State victory with less than 45 total points scored between the two teams due to the “nervous” nature they exhibit when competing against each other. Ohio State contracts “to win” are currently available for 48¢ on Kalshi.
Both teams started their 2026 NCAA football regular-season campaigns with easy victories. The Buckeyes scored 14 points in every quarter of their 56-3 blowout win over the Ball State Cardinals. The Longhorns were equally impressive in their 59-7 rout over the Texas State Bobcats.
Having legitimate “top 5” Division 1 matchups scheduled so early in the season is undoubtedly a boon for the NCAA, but the CFP ramifications are similarly undisputed. A team that ends its regular season with two losses or fewer should have a reasonable path to the postseason, but three losses could ultimately disqualify either team from a CFP bid.
Ohio State will face five more nationally ranked teams this year. Three of those contests will be on the road. For Texas, the schedule is even more daunting, with six future opponents that are currently ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, including away games in Baton Rouge and College Station.
Trading volume for the Ohio State v Texas game may be under $1 million now, but activity will soar on Saturday well before the 6:30 p.m. local-time kickoff occurs. There’s a bit of downward pressure on the first-half points total, which is at 23.5 points.
Otherwise, Kalshi traders are locked in. We probably won’t see any major movements for the “winner’s” market until the first team scores this Saturday night. Viewers in the United States can catch all the action on ABC. Saturday night’s live attendance is projected to be around 100,000 with a sell-out crowd on hand.
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