For many voters, the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires marked an end to their support for Mayor Karen Bass. In their dissent, Angelenos routinely point to property damage, air pollution, school cancellations, and other events that could have been at least partially prevented.
However, the label of “Democratic Socialist” that her opponent, Nithya Raman, carries may escort the incumbent candidate into the proverbial winner’s circle this November. Prediction market traders currently have Karen Bass listed at 63¢ per contract to defeat Raman in the general election.
More than $120 million has already been traded on Kalshi’s Los Angeles mayoral race winner market. Although Bass is currently 72 years old, she is a veteran of the public service sector. Bass served as a member of the US House of Representatives for over ten years before becoming mayor of Los Angeles. She also served as the speaker of the California State Assembly from 2008 to 2010.
Karen Bass has the endorsements of former vice president Kamala Harris and former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. By contrast, Nithya Raman has only been in public service since 2020, as a councilmember representing the city’s 4th District.
Although polling shows that the majority of Los Angeles voters believe the city is on the “wrong track,” they’re expected to balk this November when faced with a clear “yes/no” vote between Bass and Raman. The Democratic Socialist Raman’s proposed policies may be viewed as too much of a shift from how liberals have traditionally ruled the nation’s second-largest city. This is why we’re choosing Bass at 63 cents per contract to win the general election.
Born in 1981, Nithya Raman has a decisive age advantage over the incumbent. Her progressive politics resonate with a growing number of Angelenos and her experience as an advocate for individuals who are homeless adds to those progressive credentials.
Raman’s base, renters who reside in Los Feliz and Silver Lake, have taken an immediate liking to rent-control policies that have made their way to New York and would likely be possible if the mayoral race is decided in Raman’s favor. As an immigrant herself, Nithya Raman is in a far better political position to push back on enforcement practices that the federal government has engaged in, especially since some of those controversial enforcement actions have taken place in Los Angeles.
If Nithya Raman can retain her core base while making at least some appeal to more moderate voters, she may overcome the polling and prediction market advantage that Karen Bass has enjoyed throughout the race.
Spencer Pratt was denied an opportunity to compete directly against Karen Bass earlier this year when he placed third in the Primary Nominating Election. November’s general election for Los Angeles mayor will basically be a “run-off” between the two candidates who received the most votes on June 2nd.
In the end, we don’t believe Karen Bass will be defeated on November 3rd. Look for the experienced public servant to remain in office as Los Angeles mayor through the 2030 calendar year.
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