On the 23rd of June 2026, BMO Field Toronto will host the two Group L teams, Panama and Croatia, who lost their first matches, as they battle for a place in the World Cup knockout stages. With both teams under pressure following their previous losses, here’s how the prediction market reads this fixture and what Kalshi has to say.
Panama’s first game against Ghana left them heartbroken after they conceded a goal in the 95th minute of the game. Although they lost, Panama actually held their own in the match and have been very competitive in their last matches, with an average of 1.7 goals per game. However, with their performance in their first game, it’s obvious their attack needs more work.
On the other hand, Croatia is a strong team to contend with, especially since they have experience on their side, having won 6 out of their last ten matches and scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game. Despite their 4-2 defeat to England, Croatia showed some scoring threat, quality attack and possession of top-notch players. The team’s starting XI for this game is likely to include Mateo Kovacic and veteran midfielder Luka Modric. Although the team has recorded a lot of success, their defence remains a cause for concern, especially after losing to England.
Since both Panama and Croatia haven’t met in the last 5 World Cup games and both are playing to catch up, we should expect to see fireworks at BMO Field.
With match day around the corner, Croatia is the favorite with a 63% chance of winning the game; a draw follows with 23%, leaving Panama with only a 14% chance of winning the game. Considering this, a possible prediction for this game is Panama 1 – Croatia 2.
Let’s see what the market has to say:
According to official rankings, Croatia sits at number 11, way above Panama. This rating also shows the quality and strength of this squad. With Luka Modric and Mateo Kovacic, the central midfield is secured. Ivan Perisic and Andrej Kramaric have the attacking position covered. Also, with the way Petar Musa played in the game against England and his form at Benfica this season, the team is already looking solid. On top of that, in their last 20 games, Croatia won 12 games, drew 3, lost 6, and scored in 16 of those games.
From previous World Cup games as well, Croatia has shown its resilience and ability to respond to pressure with its superior attacking formation. From the quality of the team and their tournament experience, our prediction is looking more accurate.
In their last game against Ghana, the team wasn’t outplayed; they were just unlucky. The tempo of their game will be dictated mainly by Adalberto “Coco’ Carrasquilla, while Michael Amir Murillo will bring his valuable defensive experience. The edge Panama might have in this game is their defensive discipline, which could frustrate Croatia in the long run.
These markets are worth tracking on Kalshi ahead of the match day:
| Outcome | Chances | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia to score first | 63% | 63¢ | 37¢ |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 45¢ | 55¢ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48¢ | 53¢ |
| Panama over 0.5 goals | 53% | 55¢ | 45¢ |
| Croatia over 1.5 goals | 56% | 56¢ | 44¢ |
Although there are thousands of World Cup prediction markets, not all of them have the same trade style as Kalshi. Trades are simple “yes or no” contracts priced between 1¢ and 99¢, and a correct outcome pays $1 per share. On this platform, you won’t find sportsbook-related terms like parlays or margin calculations.
Croatia to win with a 2-1 margin is the likely result because the team has more individual quality. Traders can expect that the team will show up big after their last defeat. Also, both teams to score is an odd worth considering because Panama has a solid defence, and after their game against England, it’s obvious Croatia’s defence isn’t airtight. However, the team’s attack formation might give them the edge they need to win the game. To check all available prediction market options for this match on Kalshi, click the banner link on this page to get started.
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