Artificial intelligence has become second nature in today’s popular culture. From the time ChatGPT was introduced, AI has increasingly worked its way into the everyday lives of individuals around the world.
This has led to more AI-based prediction markets making their way to exchanges, where traders place real money forecasts on outcomes. Below, our readers will find the most popular AI prediction markets (per trading volume) that are currently active on Polymarket.
Technically, this market includes firms that are not intimately related to releasing new AI agents and LLMs. Still, there’s plenty of overall trading volume ($18 million at present) that is spread out over companies including Perplexity AI, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
The chances of any of the above-listed companies getting acquired by the end of the year are relatively slim. Only Perplexity AI’s “yes” contracts are trading at 15¢, while OpenAI and Anthropic’s acquisition chances are published at around 3 percent each.
Keen traders will immediately pick up on the fact that the most popular AI markets are often resolved on criteria that can be subjective. This is the case for the “best” AI model market, which settles based on the Arena AI leaderboard, and nothing else.
There is also an expiration date for each individual market listed under this category. Anthropic is the clear favorite for which model will be best by the end of September as well as by the end of next year. Millions have already been traded on this market, with Anthropic contracts currently available for 85¢ on the “end of September” market.
For those who are unfamiliar with Google Gemini, the current model can incorporate popular functionality that’s included in Google Docs and Google Sheets seamlessly into one’s personal experience. Users can take this a step further by allowing Google to use a “personal intelligence” profile to enhance the AI model’s features.
More than $1 million has been traded on when Google will release its next model for Gemini. While a pre-September 15th release date is considered by AI market traders to be a huge underdog, contract prices for a new model before October 31st have soared to 70¢ each.
Polymarket has a unique module that traders can view when forecasting this market. The module shows OpenAI’s most recent valuations, and how they’ve climbed since the beginning of the year.
Unsurprisingly, a $1 trillion valuation doesn’t represent the “peak” of this market. Some traders are buying contracts at 2.3¢ predicting that OpenAI will receive a valuation of $5 trillion or above by the end of this year.
That would be extremely impressive, considering that a multi-trillion-dollar valuation would put OpenAI in rare company with Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Nvidia. More than $1 million has already been exchanged in trades on this OpenAI valuation market.
There are numerous markets tied to a potential OpenAI IPO announcement. However, the cut-off date has moved to mid-2027 by popular demand. The company’s CFO has already stated that OpenAI is unlikely to pursue an IPO before next year, which has caused the “by 2027” contracts to fade to just 7¢ apiece.
But traders who have adjusted their timeline to reflect a potential “by March 2027” IPO announcement will find those contracts available for 64¢. Those contracts go up to 76¢ for OpenAI to announce its IPO before the end of Q2 2027.
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