The No. 1 Texas Longhorns (4-0) head to Cotton Bowl for the Red River Rivalry to go at it with the Oklahoma Sooners (2-2) on Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
The top-ranked Longhorns have a pair of impressive wins on their resume, including a 20-17 win on the road against Tennessee and a 24-23 victory at home vs. Ohio State. Meanwhile, the Sooners are fresh off a blowout loss on the road against Georgia, so they’re looking to bounce back. I’ve taken a close look at the best prediction markets to find the best prices for this college football matchup.
Texas is priced at 75 cents to win. The Longhorns are -7.5 on the point spread, priced at 50 cents. Considering that we just saw Georgia beat Oklahoma by 28 points, this makes a lot of sense, even with the Longhorns on the road.
The total is listed at 39.5 points, with the Over favored at 51 cents. The Sooners have struggled to score points this year, averaging only 22.0 per game, which is bad news against a Texas defense that ranks 11th in the country in points per game allowed. Oklahoma also has a good defense, ranking 24th in the same category.
Targeting the total here feels like the prudent approach in this spot.
I’m going with Under 39.5 points at 51 cents. Yes, this is a low bar to clear, but Oklahoma has scored 14 points or fewer in three consecutive games. They’re struggling on offense right now, which is bad news vs. this Longhorns defense.
If we remove the Ohio State game (23 points allowed), the Longhorns have given up seven, six, and 17 points this season. In other words, this doesn’t feel like the matchup where the Sooners are able to get back on track on offense.
Sooners’ quarterback John Mateer has had issues protecting the football in recent weeks, throwing at least one interception in three straight games, with a total of four picks over that stretch.
One thing Oklahoma does well is limit opposing passing production, ranking 2nd in passing yards allowed per game. With Texas quarterback Arch Manning averaging only 215.5 passing yards per game, this isn’t a prolific offense through the air. That means more rushing volume, which bodes well for the Under.
I don’t feel comfortable laying 7.5 points here, so we’ll go with Under 39.5 instead.
Taking a close look at prediction markets apps, we see that the market has had minimal movement. Back on Oct. 4, Texas was 77%, but now they’re 75%, so it’s not much of a meaningful change. If I had to choose a side, I’d go with the Longhorns, but the Under 39.5 feels like the better buy.
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