This Saturday, the USC Trojans will begin the season with a home game against the San Jose State Spartans in what the Trojans hope will be a convincing victory. Traders who use prediction market apps like Kalshi are forecasting a wipeout in favor of the Trojans, with USC contract prices maxed out at 99¢ each.
There’s more than $700,000 in pending contracts on this game, most of which are tied to parlays or non-moneyline trades. The “total points scored” and “spread” markets are much more attractive to potential buyers who aren’t interested in a 99¢ contract on the Trojans to win outright.
The USC Trojans are a legitimate contender to make the CFP this year. Under head coach Lincoln Riley, the Trojans are ranked No. 14 in the nation but will have to get past an extremely challenging schedule that’s filled with Big Ten powerhouses if they want to earn a shot at a national title.
The current spread for USC is 38.5 points. Typically, that number would appear unseemly to football fans who only follow the NFL. But this is college football, and teams are often incentivized to win by wide margins over teams that shouldn’t present much of a challenge.
We’re going with the Trojans to win by more than 38.5 points and for the total points scored to be more than 60.5. If the final score winds up being 52-10 with USC on top, then both of those contracts will be successful.
The media is almost exclusively focused on the USC Trojans ahead of Saturday afternoon’s contest, and for good reason. Despite the No. 14 national ranking, the Trojans are members of the Big Ten Conference and are therefore destined to battle against numerous highly ranked opponents.
USC will host the No. 2 Oregon Ducks in late September, travel to take on No. 18 Penn State on October 10th, and then return to the Coliseum to host the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes on Halloween night. On November 14th, the Trojans will be in Bloomington to face off against the No. 6 Indiana Hoosiers, who are the defending national champions.
The Trojans need to somehow win ten games this year to have a secure spot in the College Football Playoff. Their journey starts this Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles against the Spartans of San Jose State.
Contract prices on which team will win the game outright aren’t going to budge between now and Saturday. The Spartans are massive underdogs with a per-contract price of just 2¢, while the Trojans’ contract price won’t fall below 99¢ unless San Jose State scores first on Saturday.
Unfortunately for San Jose State, a 40-point defeat at the hands of USC will help the Trojans out in terms of CFP positioning. Don’t feel sorry for the Spartans, though. Their athletic program is set to collect $1.4 million for agreeing to replace Notre Dame on USC’s schedule this year.
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