The 2026 Masters Tournament, a highlight of the sporting calendar, begins again on the 9th April. Two-time winner Scottie Scheffler is in the lead to win, but there’s still time to make your picks at prediction market Kalshi.
Defending champion Rory McIlroy is also among the main contenders, but is joined by other strong options including Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Ludvig Aberg. The Augusta course is notoriously unforgiving and while Scheffler is a strong competitor, he’s far from a lock. Here’s everything you need to know about making your choice of 2026 Masters Winner.
The 2026 Masters Tournament tees off once again on the 9th April at the Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. This prestigious event, now in its 90th year, is one of the four major annual golf tournaments and is distinctive because it’s held on the same course each year. Rory McIlroy was the champion in 2025 but currently only has a 6% chance of triumphing this year, while Scottie Scheffler is way out in front, with a 14% chance of raising the trophy.
As we write this, the other current contenders for Masters winner include Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele, in descending order of winning probability. Let’s take a closer look at how each golfer’s contracts are shifting at prediction market Kalshi.
Scottie Scheffler is by far the favorite to win the Masters among every entry on our list of prediction market apps. However, he has seen a drop in his numbers since the beginning of the week. Here’s how the market has moved:
Two-time Masters Champion (2022 and 2024) Scheffler is the frontrunner to win the Masters this year. He’s the World Number One and has a precise game well suited to Augusta’s sloping greens. He also has extensive experience of the course and will know how to utilise low risk shots to build solid momentum over the rounds. He’s also a calm and even-tempered player who won’t get rattled by the crowd or any leaderboard pressure.
While Mcllroy’s game is well suited to the Augusta course, he hasn’t been immune to its particular challenges. He has struggled under pressure in key moments and made minor lapses, which are quickly punished by the unforgiving Augusta setup.
Spaniard Rahm also has a strong record at Augusta and was the Masters winner in 2023. His game combines excellent driving and iron play, which is a huge plus on the Augusta course. However, he tends to play more aggressively than Scheffler, which could lead to emotion-driven mistakes that are hard to overcome.
As well as Scheffler, Rahm and McIlroy, there are several possible Masters winners at Kalshi, including Bryson DeChambeau, Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele, all with a 5%+ chance of winning. Just below this sit Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama and Tommy Fleetwood, who are hovering at around 4%.
The 2026 Masters Champion market opened in February at Kalshi and has seen significant movement since that time. Let’s take a look at the most significant changes for the main contenders:
Since the market opened, Scottie Scheffler has had the highest chance of becoming Masters Champion. However, his numbers have taken a considerable dip from around 27% in February to 14% now. This has been a steady decrease, which could be a result of his mixed recent form.
Jon Rahm currently has around an 8% chance of winning the Masters, and we’ve seen that number remain pretty consistent since the market opened. He dropped to 5% at the beginning of February but has slowly increased to sit back at 8%.
Realistically, a shock winner at the Masters is unlikely. The course is the same each year so experience matters. Having said that, upsets can and do happen in the high pressure environment of Augusta.
The weather can affect each round’s outcome, but that doesn’t seem to be an issue this year. The forecast calls for sunny conditions with little wind which should create predictable conditions that favour the more experienced players.
Rory McIlroy won the Masters in 2025, following a tense sudden-death playoff with Justin Rose, allowing him to complete the Career Grand Slam. Scottie Scheffler won in 2024 and 2022 and Jon Rahm triumphed in 2023. Experience can help a lot with the Augusta course, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see any of these veterans lift the trophy. However, there’s a lot of quality in the field and several other experienced players who may be able to temper their game to deal with the unique course challenges.
Kalshi is offering a range of contracts on the Masters 2026 outcome. Follow the steps below to make your pick:
The table below shows the current implied probabilities and Yes/No contract prices for the top Masters markets:
Take note that, if a golfer forfeits or withdraws before the start of the tournament, then the Tournament Winner and End of Round Leader contracts will
resolve as ‘No’.
At the moment, traders on Kalshi believe that Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win the 2026 Masters. He has won the event twice already and has a game and temperament suited to the Augusta course. But, there are a number of stable contenders, including experienced McIlroy and Rahm, who could exploit any lapses.
Make your pick by heading over to Kalshi today. Register using our banners and you can lock in your picks in minutes.
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