The fascination with space-based communications and exploration has risen significantly in recent years. Thanks to SpaceX, society has become acclimated to the concept of reusable rockets while experiencing the reality of tower catches in real time.
Forecasters who participate in prediction markets are likewise enthralled by the progress of SpaceX, but for different reasons. Each month, Kalshi traders generate hundreds of thousands of dollars in volume on how many launches the company will achieve during that cycle.
A quick glimpse at the official SpaceX launch manifest shows that a total of 14 flights have been scheduled for July. Ten of those have already been achieved, with future launch dates set for July 23rd, 25th, 28th, and 29th. Most of these are connected to SpaceX’s Starlink product, but launch fans can witness Starship’s 13th flight test tonight.
A separate launch with national security implications is scheduled for July 30th. However, that launch is not included on the official manifest (but it still counts towards the final settlement figure on the Kalshi market).
Due to weather conditions that have the potential to delay SpaceX launches, it’s probably a good idea to secure your trade for a number that is slightly lower than what the manifest displays. For this reason, we agree with the majority of traders who are picking up “yes” contracts on the “Above 13” mark for July at 77¢ per contract.
For many fans, Starship launches are a must-watch event. If you have an opportunity later today, you can begin watching one of the various live streams and simulcasts. The live coverage typically begins at the 30-minute countdown mark, which will be around 5:15pm local time if all goes according to plan.
SpaceX has informed its followers that the weather conditions will be a “significant watch item” ahead of this afternoon’s launch from Pad 2. Winds associated with Tropical Storm Bertha could result in the launch being aborted, which will immediately impact the market trading on Kalshi.
This is specifically why we recommend going with the “Above 13” trade. If a “weather scrub” occurs tonight, there’s a good chance that the test flight could still launch later this month, but we recommend trading conservatively by choosing the “yes” option for “Above 13” SpaceX launches in July.
Total trading volume on this market has already eclipsed $500,000 for the month. If there is indeed a weather event that causes today’s launch to be aborted, you can expect intense trading activity in the immediate aftermath.
Forecasters may be able to secure additional “Above 13” contracts at a discounted price if Tropical Storm Bertha makes conditions for a launch less than optimal. As long as it’s a typical “weather scrub” (and not something more serious), the 13th test flight should still be good to go for later this month.
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