Prediction market forecasters on Kalshi have already poured $31.8 million into trades on the upcoming 2026 Texas Senate election between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. With two weeks remaining before the November 3rd midterm elections, Talarico’s per-contract price is hovering around 62¢, compared to a contract price of 39¢ for Paxton to win.
The Lone Star State showdown has proven itself to be the highest-volume market for an individual Senate race, with trading activity equal to roughly the combined total of the next three most popular markets (Maine, Michigan, and Ohio). All four Senate races show a forecasting edge for Democratic candidates.
In the recent past, political prediction markets on Kalshi have been somewhat skewed in favor of “progressive” Democrats. However, James Talarico has been avoiding that label and recently turned down a joint campaign appearance with Democratic stalwarts Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
We think the Texas Senate race will be extremely close due to traditional Republican dominance. While we wouldn’t necessarily categorize Ken Paxton as the “favorite” to win, we do believe that his contracts are a bargain at 39¢. That’s why we’re picking up any “yes” contracts on the sitting Texas attorney general at any price that’s below 48¢ per contract.
If this market flips in Paxton’s favor before November 3rd (unlikely given the recent polling data that shows Talarico with a very slim lead), then we’ll consider swapping sides to the Democratic candidate.
Recent coverage by NBC affiliate WCBD News 2 points to disarray within Republican circles as President Trump’s decision to back Ken Paxton in the primary race against incumbent John Cornyn earlier this year remains a questionable tactic. That same article cites Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages, which are giving James Talarico a razor-thin, two-point advantage over Paxton while still considering the race to be a “toss-up” due to the margins of error associated with polling.
On the surface, a Democratic Senate victory in a Republican stronghold like Texas would come as a shock, especially given that the state has voted significantly in favor of Donald Trump since 2016. But the Democrats believe they have made inroads even in Texas, as the president’s foreign and economic policies clash with the wishes of some of his strongest supporters.
By most accounts, John Cornyn would have comfortably won a general election against James Talarico in Texas, but President Trump chose to campaign against Cornyn and handed the primary election to Ken Paxton as a result. That single decision could sway control of the Senate to the Democrats by a 51-49 margin.
But Talarico will have to defeat a Republican in the general election to give the Democratic Party a solid path to a Senate majority in early 2027. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3rd, which leaves just two weeks remaining before future control of the Senate is determined.
The Kalshi market for who wins the Texas Senate race could soar over $50 million before November 3rd.
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