This Saturday afternoon, the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers travel to Columbia to compete against the South Carolina Gamecocks in an SEC matchup with postseason implications. Prediction market traders are projecting a close game despite the Volunteers’ 6-1 record and national ranking.On Kalshi, the Gamecocks are actually favored to win at home, an outcome that would severely dim Tennessee’s hopes for a CFP berth. Although kickoff is still more than 48 hours away, this market has attracted massive attention from traders throughout the country.
The Volunteers are coming off a signature 26-10 victory over Alabama. After getting benched in the team’s game against Auburn on October 3rd, quarterback Faizon Brandon has navigated Tennessee to a pair of key SEC wins.
But the ghost of November 19th, 2022, looms large. The Volunteers’ dreams of winning a national championship were dashed in Columbia when the Gamecocks ran up the score on Josh Heupel and Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending ACL injury.
We’re putting our contract budget toward the Tennessee Volunteers “righting the wrongs” of four years ago. When the action kicks off on ESPN this Saturday, we expect Tennessee to take control of the game early and come out on the winning end once the final whistle has blown. Sports prediction market forecasters can currently buy “yes” contracts on the Volunteers to win at 46¢ each.
The Volunteers’ 20-17 defeat at the hands of the Texas Longhorns isn’t looking as “strong” as it did three weeks ago. The Longhorns have lost two straight and could drop out of the Top 25 AP Poll entirely if they don’t get past the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday night.
This turns Tennessee’s game against the Gamecocks into a must-win scenario. The Vols still have LSU and Kentucky on their schedule, not to mention the games against the Texas A&M Aggies and Vanderbilt. If Tennessee loses this weekend, the team will be in serious jeopardy of having a three-loss season, which won’t be good enough to make the SEC Championship or qualify for the College Football Playoff.
South Carolina isn’t really in contention to make the postseason. The Gamecocks are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and are mostly playing for pride at this point. We expect Tennessee’s “yes” contracts to increase slightly before kickoff, but not to the point where the Volunteers are listed as true favorites.
This game is a virtual lock to become a million-dollar market on Kalshi before Saturday. There’s already $600,000 in open trades as of early Thursday morning. Look for the “over” market to surge beyond 50.5 total points due to the ideal weather conditions that are forecast in Columbia for this Saturday afternoon.
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