This Saturday night, the Texas Longhorns travel to Baton Rouge to play their first game at Tiger Stadium since 1953 against LSU. This SEC matchup has massive implications for prediction markets as they relate to the CFP prospects of both teams.
If the Tigers lose at home this Saturday, their hopes of competing for a national championship are vanquished. With two losses, the Texas Longhorns are equally susceptible to being left out of the College Football Playoff if they can’t find a way to upset the Tigers on the road.
The Texas Longhorns are ranked No. 6 in the country while the LSU Tigers are ranked No. 21. That hasn’t stopped Kalshi forecasters from designating the Tigers as a 4.5-point favorite, though. More than $750,000 has been traded on the outcome of this game as of early Thursday morning, meaning it could easily break the $5 million mark by the time the game ends on Saturday night.
Texas quarterback Arch Manning had his first truly impressive outing over a competent opponent last week in the Longhorns’ 34-20 win over Missouri, which is why I’m picking Texas to upset the Tigers. At just 39¢ per contract, some traders are going to find it hard to pass the Longhorns’ contracts up after LSU lost its third game of the season in such a dismal effort against Alabama last Saturday.
The best sports prediction market picks are Texas to win outright and Texas to cover the 4.5-point spread with ease. That would give LSU coach Lane Kiffin his fourth loss of the season after he led the Ole Miss Rebels to a historic season less than 12 months ago.
Arch Manning grew up in Louisiana and attended numerous college football games at Tiger Stadium growing up. The “homecoming” element should be just the motivation that the quarterback needs to salvage what has been a rollercoaster season for Texas.
Wide receiver Cam Coleman will be back in the mix for Texas this Saturday after missing last week’s game due to a shoulder injury. The Longhorns are also getting SEC sack leader Colin Simmons back at full strength following limited snaps last week.
In a weird twist, LSU head coach Lane Kiffin was reportedly responsible for the visual overhaul of the visiting locker room at Tiger Stadium. The newly painted pink walls apparently had no bearing on Alabama’s players a week ago and shouldn’t play a factor in dimming the Longhorns’ sights once the two teams take the field.
Look for the point spread to narrow a bit between now and Saturday night’s kickoff on ABC. Yes, Lane Kiffin may be in a do-or-die situation for LSU’s playoff hopes, but Texas finds itself in the same scenario, especially given the fact that the Tigers are the last ranked team remaining on its schedule.
Traders can also expect the Longhorns’ contracts to rise in price if Texas is able to get things going offensively in the first quarter against LSU’s defense. Value-seekers will want to purchase the 39¢ contracts for Texas to win before the actual game starts.
Fans who are cheering for LSU will probably want to wait to see if they can get a better price before committing to an actual trade on Kalshi.
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