Ten days from now, the sandbox saga of Lucia Caminos and Jason Duval is expected to finally become available to the public on a global scale. It’s been 13 years since video gamers have had a modern-day Grand Theft Auto title to spend thousands of hours on. Next Thursday is expected to be a blockbuster event for the video game industry as well as for the best prediction markets that forecast how GTA VI will perform.
GTA fans will undoubtedly be in the process of creating hard drive space between now and November 19th, especially those who have pre-ordered the GTA VI title and can begin downloading it this week. With the seismic event now less than two weeks away, here’s a look at the best prediction market prices for GTA fans who want to trade on various outcomes related to the game’s launch.
GTA VI will launch with a single-player campaign only. There will be no online mode available when the game becomes available next week. Of course, the popularity of GTA V’s “online” mode is a strong motivator for the development team to make this mode playable on GTA VI as soon as possible.
With that said, the exact Terms of Service and End-User Agreements could still require quite a bit of “tweaking” based on how the game is received by individual countries. We agree with the current market sentiment on Kalshi that the “online” mode for GTA VI is unlikely to launch by the end of the year.
GTA fans who agree with our take can secure “no” contracts for around 82¢ apiece. Each of those contracts will resolve at exactly $1 if GTA VI doesn’t have an “online” mode before January 1st, 2027.
Video gamers who have followed recent news coverage already know that GTA VI is a virtual “lock” to become the highest-grossing video game in 24 hours. That distinction is currently held by its predecessor GTA V, which achieved over $800 million in gross sales within its first 24 hours of launch in September 2013.
New traders on the Kalshi prediction market app will want to seek out those who are willing to accept “no” options for GTA VI to break the record. Even at a 50-to-1 longshot, the “no” side (which is forecasting against GTA VI achieving more than $815.7 million in sales in its first 24 hours) provides zero value at this point. Those who are willing to accept the risk and take the counter-side of the trade will benefit, in our view.
It’s also worth noting that the GTA VI title will have a basic list price of $79.99 USD. That’s $20 more than GTA V cost back in 2013. Moreover, the digital download capabilities that video gamers worldwide now have are far superior to what they were during the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 days.
Yes, the official launch date for GTA VI is set for November 19th, 2026. Signage for the video game has already taken over the city of Miami. Also, the Miami Heat have confirmed that the team will “trade Miami for Vice City” during its November 18th home game against the Milwaukee Bucks, just hours before GTA VI launches.
Similar to the market listed in the section above, GTA fans will want to prioritize securing contracts against individuals who believe GTA VI will suffer an unexpected delay between now and next Thursday. The contracts will be relatively expensive (from 98¢ to 99¢ each) but will still provide value if a “taker” who’s willing to put up 2¢ on the opposing side of this trade can be found.
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