More than three decades removed from the debut of MTV’s “The Real World,” reality TV remains front and center in the hearts and minds of American viewers.
Three shows in particular—Big Brother, Dancing with the Stars, and Stranger Things—have prediction markets up-in-arms about which candidate will ultimately win this season’s contest or whether a TV show will air more episodes. Here’s a look at the top TV culture markets that have attracted traders’ attention entering Q4 2026.
To start, Big Brother host Julie Chen Moonves has become the face of the franchise since it originally began at the turn of the 21st Century. Although her “perfect” streak was broken due to a positive COVID-19 diagnosis, there’s no reality TV show host in America who has enjoyed such longevity.
With that said, prediction market traders are more concerned about which contestant will win Big Brother Season 28 on October 1st, when the final episode airs. The end of the season is nearing, and the episode lineup will be significantly impacted by exterior programming that includes the season premiere of Survivor and the MTV Video Music Awards.
Rick Devens enjoys a massive advantage as Head of Household entering this season’s final week. With more than $5.5 million traded on Kalshi, Devens’ contracts are priced at 38¢ to claim the $750,000 Season 28 winner’s prize.
Social media guru Dee Valladares is listed as the second most likely contestant to win this season. Traders can obtain her “yes” contract for 28¢ apiece. This season’s 90-minute Big Brother finale will air on Thursday, October 1st, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
The sometimes lighthearted Dancing with the Stars TV show has become a topic of serious contention among prediction market forecasters this year. Season 35 won’t conclude until late November, but there are two contestants who stand out as the most likely to win this season: Maura Higgins and Harry Shum Jr. This season only recently premiered, but that hasn’t stopped prediction markets from labeling the pair as “early favorites” to win.
Traditionally, Harry Shum Jr. may face a disadvantage given his past experience as a cast member of Glee. Audiences have consistently penalized contestants who have choreography in the resumes. If we’re forced to choose between the two current frontrunners, we’ll go with Maura Higgins, who became an early-season favorite among fans last week.
Less than seven days into Season 35, the Kalshi “winner’s” market is already approaching $2 million.
For all intents and purposes, Stranger Things has officially ended after five seasons. Fans and prediction market traders alike remain hooked, which has led to an interesting, $2.5 million market on whether Stranger Things has a “secret” episode up its sleeve.
For the Kalshi market to settle as a “yes,” a new episode of the live-action TV series (not the Tales from ‘85 animated show) would need to air between now and the end of the year. Arguably, the “yes” contracts for this market should be priced at one penny or below, but traders will need 4¢ to buy each affirmative contract.
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