Forecasting elections has become a popular pastime for prediction market traders around the world. Each day, Polymarket account holders pour millions into “yes/no” options for their favorite political candidates.
But which election markets are the most popular? To find out, we’ve compiled a top 5 list of currently active election markets on the Polymarket international exchange. By using trading volume as the most important metric, we can quickly discover which markets are the most sought-after by traders worldwide.
Here is the current list for the top 5 election markets on the international Polymarket exchange
Most people automatically assume that the 2028 general election for president has the highest trading volume, but they would be wrong. The contracts on who the 2028 Democratic Party presidential nominee will be are flying at a meteoric rate on Polymarket.
With $1.25 billion in total trading volume, this market is the hottest in the world when it comes to election outcomes. California Governor Gavin Newsom is the frontrunner at just under 20¢ per contract, followed by Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff at 13.5¢ per contract and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12.7 cents.
The massively competitive field, coupled with general uncertainty over who will eventually win the party’s primaries in 2028, has made for a highly entertaining market.
This market may not be as highly traded as the No. 1 spot, but is still experiencing plenty of volume as forecasters switch between Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Recently, Vance has taken over the top spot at 43¢ per contract as the conflict in the Middle East endures.
More than $680 million has already been traded on this market, which will be settled once a candidate has won the Republican primaries in 2028 and secured the party’s nomination. If you’re more inclined to believe Marco Rubio will be on the general presidential ballot in two years, you can buy his contracts for 27.9 cents apiece.
Aside from those two, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the next-closest contender, followed by the market for Donald Trump, Sr. to win a third term, which is being propped up by traders who believe the current president will, somehow, still be in office following Inauguration Day in January 2029.
This market has experienced $673 million in trading volume since it opened two years ago. Somewhat surprisingly, the two frontrunners in this market are both from the Republican Party (J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio).
If you want to buy a “yes” option for a Democratic candidate, you’ll need to scroll down to the “yes” contracts on Gavin Newsom, which are available for 11.7¢ per contract.
The main thing to remember for these “top three” markets is that there is a clear distinction between them. One focuses exclusively on the Democratic Party’s nomination, another on the Republican Party’s nomination, and this one on who, exactly, will be the next president.
This market has a massive amount of trading volume considering it’s directly related with a country that doesn’t typically find itself on the world stage. With roughly $250 million traded, those who have pending contracts are mostly waiting for this market to settle once Abiy Ahmed is sworn in as the country’s next head of state.
The actual elections were held on June 1st of this year, but until a prime minister is formally sworn in, this market won’t resolve (even if there’s an interim appointment in the meantime). This market is a great reminder of why it’s so vitally important to review the exact terms before committing to a trade.
Heading into the month of August, this is the fifth-largest political market on the Polymarket international exchange, with most trades revolving around the date of December 31st, 2026. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be defeated in the upcoming Israeli elections, or will he hold on to power as a result of a major electoral victory?
That’s what’s at stake in this market, which has seen well over $120 million in trades since it launched. The Israeli elections are scheduled to take place on October 27th of this year. However, even if Netanyahu loses the election, a new prime minister may not be sworn in until January 2027. This means that the market could still resolve as “no” even if the current prime minister isn’t successful at the polls.
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