The 2026 World Cup was a landmark event for Kalshi, bringing in billions in prediction market sports trading volume along with 3 million new accounts, according to CNBC. The final four matches of the World Cup achieved a combined $2.8 billion in notional trading volume alone.
If you’re interested in which World Cup matches attracted the most trading attention on Kalshi, we’ve provided that information below.
Unsurprisingly, the top 4 Kalshi markets for the 2026 World Cup turned out to be the final four matches that were played in the tournament.
Sunday’s World Cup Final match between Spain and Argentina was held at New York New Jersey Stadium in front of a sellout crowd. Spain’s overtime goal led to it capturing its second-ever World Cup title as it held off Lionel Messi and Argentina.
As of early Monday morning, the total trading volume on Kalshi for the Final match was listed at $1.89B. Due to some combo trades that have yet to be settled, the eventual total could reach as high as $1.9 billion. It’s worth noting that the Kalshi World Cup winner market had already reached $1.2 billion well before the final match took place.
Trading volume was fast and furious throughout the World Cup Final match on Sunday. At one point, trading volume eclipsed $10 million per minute. Argentina was unable to score an equalizer on Sunday, and was thoroughly dominated in the shots on goal and ball possession categories.
The 2026 World Cup Bronze Final was played at Miami Stadium on Saturday. It featured a total of 10 combined goals as England outlasted France by a score of 6-4.
France’s star striker Kylian Mbappé scored two goals during the match that would lead to him capturing the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot award, but that wasn’t enough to prevent England from winning third-place honors for the tournament.
In all, Kalshi traders placed more than $333 million in predictions for the World Cup Bronze Final match. This included 60-second time frames in which $3 million was put on the line by Kalshi forecasters. The peak of trading activity for the Bronze Final took place after Mbappé scored his second goal of the match during Minute 66.
For many Kalshi forecasters, this match marked the point in which their trades on France winning the tournament fell through. Spain took a 1-0 lead in the semifinal match at Minute 22 and never looked back.
Once the dust had settled, Spain was destined for the 2026 World Cup Final and France was relegated to competing for third place. The total trading volume for this match was $326 million on Kalshi, with peaks of $2 million of trades within 60-second cycles while the on-field action was taking place.
Dallas Stadium in Arlington was at full capacity, but France’s hopes to win another world title were dashed nonetheless by La Furia Roja.
England’s hopes to compete for a World Cup championship were dashed when they faced Argentina. This semifinal winner market on Kalshi was heavily skewed in favor of the European powerhouse until Argentina managed to score two goals in rapid succession near the end of regulation.
Trading activity reached $316 million for the World Cup semifinal match, topping $2 million per minute once Argentina scored its first goal to tie the score inside the domed Atlanta Stadium. As fate would have it, Argentina would be denied a second consecutive World Cup title on Sunday, when the team was defeated by Spain 1-0.
Loading …
