Chris Duncan will face Renato Moicano in the next UFC Fight Night on April 4th.
Duncan has a 62% chance of winning the fight at prediction market Kalshi, compared to Moicano’s 38%.
Our guide has details to help you make your fight prediction.
The next UFC Fight Night is hitting our screens on the 4th April, straight out of the META Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event is a fight between Brazilian Renato Moicano and Scot Chris Duncan.
At the moment, Duncan has a 68% implied chance of winning this fight on Kalshi and is coming from a run of recent victories. But experienced fighter Moicano shouldn’t be discounted, as he has a lot of experience compared to the potentially untested Duncan. Here’s everything you need to know to make a pick on this event at prediction markets.
This Saturday’s fight between Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan is the big ticket event in the latest UFC Fight Night (aka UFC Vegas 115). Preliminaries begin at 10 PM and the Main Event, the Lightweight fight between Duncan and Moicano, kicks off at 1 AM.
Chris Duncan has been the favorite to win this bout since markets opened at prediction markets such as Kalshi.
As we write this, Duncan is the favorite to win this fight at Kalshi, with a 62% implied probability of winning compared to Moicano’s 38%. Let’s take a closer look at the factors that could lead to a Duncan win:
Nicknamed ‘The Problem’, Duncan is an aggressive fighter with a high hit rate and strong finishing ability. He is in good recent form and has a Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute rate of 5.02. This is significantly higher than Moicano’s but does come with a lower accuracy. So, while Duncan has the higher hit rate, Moicano lands more accurate blows.
Duncan has the edge at Kalshi but doesn’t have a proven track record in five-round fights. He has less experience against fighters such as Moicano and the longer fight and higher intensity could impact his stamina. Moicano also has an exceptional fight IQ, which could allow him to parry Duncan’s blows.
Since this market opened, Moicano has hovered at no more than 40% while Duncan has remained consistent at around 60%. Here’s a closer look at how the market could alter:
Known for an explosive style, Duncan could prevail in this fight if he strikes early before grappling becomes a deciding factor. However, this is a five-round event, which could mean that Duncan could tire before the seasoned pro Moicano.
Although the market strongly favours Duncan, Moicano shouldn’t be overlooked. He is a veteran, and matchups between up-and-coming fighters and contenders with more experience are notoriously unpredictable. If Moicano can apply pressure early and slow the pace of the fight, he may be able to win by submission or late control.
Moicano and Duncan have never faced each other, so there’s no past history to analyse. But, we know that both fighters train at American Top Team, so we will have a pretty good idea of each other’s strengths, weaknesses, and fighting style. This could create a very interesting dynamic and potentially give the veteran Moicano an edge.
It’s easy to make a pick on this fight at Kalshi, one of our favorite prediction markets. Here’s a step-by-step guide to getting started:
In the table below, we’ve outlined the implied probabilities and contract prices for both fighters:
| Fighter | Implied probability | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Duncan | 38% | $0.38 | $0.63 |
| Renato Moicano | 62% | $0.63 | $0.38 |
In addition to the main pick, Kalshi allows members to make prop sports predictions on phrases and words mentioned by commentators. We’ve highlighted a few of these markets in the table below:
| Pick | Chance | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mentions – ‘Blood/Bloody’ | 28% | $0.38 | $0.81 |
| Mentions – ‘Choke/Choked/Chokehold’ | 39% | $0.37 | $0.79 |
| Mentions – Knockout/Knock Out/Knocked Out’ | 47% | $0.62 | $0.67 |
Chris Duncan is a clear frontrunner to win this Saturday’s UFC main event at Kalshi, with around a 60% chance of victory. This number has remained stable since markets opened, reflecting Duncan’s recent dominance and aggressive style. However, it’s important to remember that he hasn’t faced Moicano before, and doesn’t have the same level of experience across five-round fights.
You can buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contracts for both fighters, as well as on various ‘Mentions’ at Kalshi today – just sign up using the links in our banners to get started.
Loading …
