Who will be the UFC heavyweight champion at the end of 2026? That’s what avid fans of this sport are asking. Tom Aspinall has held the title since June 2025. But will he still have it by year-end?
Traders on Kalshi are speculating that he just might. But Alex Pereira, who’s known for his signature left hook and knockout record, isn’t far behind though. Here, we’ll be highlighting the details of this prediction market including what traders view each fighter’s chances as, and the factors that could influence who holds the belt by the end of 2026.
Right now, Tom Aspinall is the UFC heavyweight champion after he traded in his interim title for the main title after Jon Jones’ retirement. Aspinall has held the title since June 2025, although he squared off with Ciryl Gane last October, but the match ended in a no-contest after he suffered an accidental eye-poke.
But this isn’t a settled division, and there’s a lineup of fighters vying for the Heavyweight title. Up close is an interim heavyweight title fight between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane on 14th June, 2026. The winner of this fight is expected to go against Aspinall later this year.
There are 10 fighters that are being speculated could hold the title, but we’ll be looking at the top three as they’ve received the most trades at the moment.
Tom Aspinall is the current champion and he’s viewed to have a 53% chance of still being the Heavyweight Title holder by the end of the year. He has undergone eye surgery after the eye-poke and the UFC has confirmed he will return later this year. He has to be medically cleared to fight though.
Alex Pereira is moving up to heavyweight after winning titles at Middleweight and Light Heavyweight divisions. Joining the Heavyweight division gives him the chance to become a three‑division UFC champion, and that’s a feat no fighter has ever achieved. Yet.
He’s being viewed to have a 34% chance of holding the title at the end of the year. But that’s if he wins Ciryl Gane this June 2026 for the interim title.
Ciryl Gane is next up, and he’s one of the top heavyweights in the UFC. He last fought Aspinall in October last year, and if he wins Pereira, he might get another chance to square off against Aspinall later this year. However, he’s viewed as having a 16% chance by prediction markets.
Knowing what could influence who holds the title by year-end is crucial. And while who’s the best fighter is important, there are a few other factors to consider, especially if you’re trading at prediction market platforms. Here are some of the top factors:
Kalshi is one of the top prediction market sites in the US right now, and it’s offering event contracts on this market. The markets are currently indicating a 53% probability of Aspinall retaining the title. But we’ve seen the chances of Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane change quickly in the past days. So, remember that these prices and probabilities aren’t fixed. And it will be interesting to see how it looks close to the interim match. If you’re curious about prediction markets, you might find our Kalshi review interesting.
Here’s a close look at the implied probability and share prices for the top three fighters to hold the Heavyweight Title by December 31, 2026.
| UFC Fighter | Chance | Yes Price | No Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 53% | 53¢ | 49¢ |
| Alex Pereira | 35% | 35¢ | 86¢ |
| Ciryl Gane | 16% | 16¢ | 90¢ |
Last year’s title fight ending as a no contest was disappointing for a lot of fans. But who will be the title holder this year? Tom Aspinall is being viewed as having the highest chance to win, but Alex Pereira has just moved into the division, and Ciryl Gane is also closing in.
The interim fight will decide who faces Aspinall next, and that will likely change the current market probabilities to a good extent.
For now though, who do you think will hold the belt at the end of 2026? If you’ve got an inkling, you can click the banners on this page to check the markets at Kalshi and make your predictions.
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