One of the most highly anticipated college football games of the season makes its way to prediction market apps throughout the country this weekend. A potential appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game is on the line this Saturday afternoon in Bloomington as the No. 9 Indiana Hoosiers take on the No. 18 USC Trojans.
Will this be the game that dashes USC’s CFP hopes for the rest of the season? Or will the Trojans find a way to win on the road as they prepare for their regular-season finale against the UCLA Bruins? Let’s take a look!
Going by prediction market trends, forecasters expect the Hoosiers to deal with the Trojans and defeat them by more than a touchdown. Not so fast (if you ask me)! The Trojans are coming off a signature victory over Ohio State and a bye week. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers have questions at quarterback and multiple close calls that have caused them to fall out of grace with the CFP Selection Committee.
Sports prediction exchanges in the US have the USC Trojans listed at just 24¢ per contract to win this Saturday on the road. Moreover, there’s a fifty-fifty market that gives USC 9.5 points on the spread. The value is too great to pass up, in my view.
USC can stay in contention for the Big Ten Championship with a win this weekend at Merchants Bank Field. A Hoosiers loss doesn’t necessarily knock the defending national champions out of the CFP, but Indiana doesn’t have another regular-season game scheduled against a ranked opponent.
The Kalshi market for this game’s outcome is close to half a million dollars already. At current rates, it could compete with the highest-volume NCAA Top 25 college football “game of the week” featuring Texas at LSU. Fans who want to watch this game live, in its entirety, can tune in to CBS or stream the action through the Paramount+ app.
If any big college football game is primed for an upset this weekend, it’s the Indiana Hoosiers hosting USC in a matchup that could result in another close contest for the home team. Despite being ranked No. 9 among Division I teams, the Hoosiers are showing no signs of last year’s luster that culminated in a perfect season and a national championship.
Fernando Mendoza is playing for the Las Vegas Raiders now, and head coach Curt Cignetti still hasn’t announced who will be his starting quarterback for this Saturday.
It’s difficult to overstate just how cheap USC’s contracts are on Kalshi right now. Those positions could cost traders as much as 30¢ apiece by kickoff. Traders who believe the Trojans are better than three-to-one dogs will want to get in on the action while the contract prices on an outright upset are still below 25¢.
A more conservative trade is the +9.5 point spread in favor of USC, which could drop an entire point for the fifty-fifty trade over the next 48 hours. This is a game in which pre-kickoff trading will be furious, so expect the Kalshi market to surpass $1 million in total volume by Saturday morning.
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