The United States Men’s National Soccer Team (USMNT) has put on quite a show in its first two matches of the 2026 World Cup. So far, it has defeated Paraguay and Australia by a cumulative total of 6 goals to one.
As a result, the men’s US soccer team is guaranteed to win Group “D” regardless of how it fares against Turkey on Thursday night at 7:00pm local time (10:00pm Eastern). The final Group “D” match for the USMNT will take place in Inglewood, just outside Los Angeles in the venue now referred to as Los Angeles Stadium.
Given the team’s World Cup performance so far, we’re going with the 52¢ “yes” contract on prediction markets for the USA men’s squad to defeat Turkey. Although the USMNT has already guaranteed its first place position during the Group phase of the tournament (and may rest a few key players), Turkey has already lost to Australia and Paraguay – which means they will be eliminated from contention regardless of Thursday night’s outcome.
If we go by recent trading volume trends on Kalshi, Thursday’s match could attract as much as $100,000,000 in “yes/no” predictions by the time the action has concluded. The team’s opening match against Paraguay garnered $86.7 million in “winner” projections alone, while the USA vs. Australia matchup winner’s market eclipsed $100 million.
If you think the USA team has a legitimate chance to “win it all” and will take care of business later this week against Turkey, then now is a great time to pick up the USA’s “yes” contract on winning the 2026 World Cup at 5.4¢ per contract. That price will inevitably increase if the USMNT goes 3-0 during the Group phase with a convincing victory Thursday night.
Since the USA men’s team is already guaranteed a first place position within Group “D” regardless of how the match against Turkey goes, much of the news coverage is based on handicapping which team the USMNT will face in its Round of 32 match. Due to the tournament’s bracket, USA could play against any number of teams from different groups, depending on how the action plays out in upcoming days.
For now, the team’s sole focus is on winning the match against Turkey and resting its key players (if it decides to do so). The “winners” markets are unlikely to be significantly impacted until the final whistle has been blown late Thursday night (or early Friday morning, depending on your time zone).
The big story here is that the USMNT has moved into Kalshi’s Top 10 list of teams favored to win the 2026 World Cup. USA is currently ranked #9 on the list, just behind Germany and ahead of Morocco.
France has become the standout frontrunner in the race for the team that will eventually hoist the 2026 World Cup gold trophy, with Kalshi forecasters placing the European team’s odds as high as 20%. As a result, the per-contract price on France to win the tournament is now 19.7 cents, which may be too high for professional value-seekers.
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